Watching 97L
First, our forecast for Monday our temperatures across the area will increase over today’s temperatures which will bring most areas into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy in some spots though I expect everyone should remain dry through Monday Evening.
Invest 97L is becoming more and more interesting over the past few hours. Currently the storm is at 7.9N 41.1W moving westward at 20 mph. The center of this system is unusually at a low latitude for tropical systems at this point across the central Atlantic. This location being closer to the equator usually means the system can’t benefit from the coriolus force which is stronger at higher latitudes. This doesn’t mean it will not develop, it just handicapped a little.
The NHC is monitoring this storm as it continues to move west. It is expected at some point to begin to organize as a tropical cyclone. Where it goes from here is quite difficult. There seems to be a consensus for the next day or two based mainly on the steering winds that currently exist. The problem is past that point the forecast gets really complicated.
Right now the primary steering force is the strong ridge to the north. This will keep 97L mainly on a straight patch to the southeast Caribbean. This ridge will also be the storm near the northern coast of South America. Due to the trade winds at this location, I see no rapid strengthening occurring with this system. However, if the system goes further north than the current projections, that will change the intensification forecast.
The steering ridge will begin to break down north of the system, due to low pressure building over the eastern CONUS by the end of the week, as it gets near the South American coast. This is where there is disagreements about its future past this point. Given the current setup it is difficult to say how it will interact with the low how strong it will be and where will it go from there. Therefore, until more evidence is provided later on down the road, I will release a more detailed forecast (which if history has taught me that I will be wrong) my current thinking on the system.
Right now, everyone in ENC or the East Coast or even the Gulf Coast should monitor this storm as major changes in the forecast are possible. This warning is not intended as forecast of the track of the system but a reminder that this system or another could occur affect our location.
Check back for more information.