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ENC Weather Tracking Eastern North Carolina Weather.

El Nino/La Nina

NOAA CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER

El Niño / La Niña

Monitor the coupled ocean-atmosphere signals used to diagnose the El Niño–Southern Oscillation across the tropical Pacific.

ENSO Alert System El Niño Advisory Issued 8 October 2026
CPC SYNOPSIS

Current ENSO Assessment

 

Read full CPC discussion ↗
Official Outlook ENSO Probabilities Monthly CPC phase probabilities ↗ Official Outlook ENSO Strength Forecast RONI forecast ranges ↗
CURRENT DIAGNOSTICS

Tropical Pacific Monitoring

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Sea Surface Temperatures Observed tropical Pacific sea-surface temperature pattern.
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SST Anomalies Departures of sea-surface temperature from the long-term average.
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Subsurface Heat Equatorial Pacific temperature anomalies below the ocean surface.
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OLR Anomalies A proxy for tropical convection and cloudiness across the Pacific.
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850-hPa Winds Low-level tropical wind anomalies, useful for monitoring trade-wind changes.
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200-hPa Winds Upper-level wind anomalies associated with tropical circulation changes.
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Weekly Anomalies Latest weekly sea-surface temperature anomaly pattern.
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Niño Regions SST anomaly history for the standard Niño monitoring regions.
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Equatorial Anomalies Longitude-time view of equatorial Pacific SST anomalies.
WHAT THE SIGNALS MEAN

Reading the ENSO system

ENSO is diagnosed from both the Pacific Ocean and the atmosphere above it; no single map establishes El Niño or La Niña by itself.

SST Ocean Surface

Persistent warming or cooling in the equatorial Pacific is the core ocean signal monitored for ENSO.

SUB Subsurface Heat

Warm or cool water below the surface can provide clues about how the surface pattern may evolve.

OLR Tropical Convection

OLR anomalies help show where deep tropical convection is enhanced or suppressed.

850 Trade Winds

Low-level wind anomalies reveal strengthening, weakening or reversal of the tropical easterlies.

200 Upper-Level Response

Upper-level wind anomalies help identify the atmospheric circulation response to tropical heating.

N3.4 Niño Regions

Standard Niño regions quantify SST anomalies in key parts of the equatorial Pacific, including Niño 3.4.