Atlantic Discussion

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
    by (nhcwebmaster) on May 26, 2019 at 5:15 PM

    009 AXNT20 KNHC 261714 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 114 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please refer to the local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed along 24W from 01N-10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment from 04N- 07N between 20W-27W. A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic, with axis along 55W and from 01S-12N. The wave is moving at around 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 04N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 13N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 00N48W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1022 mb high pressure centered near 34N86W. Fair weather prevails under this ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle southeast winds in the northern Gulf, and moderate winds in the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will continue supporting moderate to fresh SE flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through mid week. A trough forming over Yucatan each day and moving into the southwest Gulf will enhance winds reaching fresh to strong categories during the evening hours. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection continues across the south-central Caribbean mainly south of 15N between 73W-84W. Lighter activity is noted north of 15N affecting eastern Cuba, Windward Passage, Hispaniola, Jamaica and adjacent waters. See the section above for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. Additionally, fresh winds are noted off the coast of Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through the early part of the week. A tropical wave east of the area near 55W will move west into the eastern Caribbean Mon, then into the central Caribbean through mid week as it weakens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. A cold front is dropping across the west-central Atlantic, extending from 31N51W to 26N64W to 27N75W, then becoming stationary to 31N77W. Meanwhile, ahead of the front a surface trough extends from 29N50W to 22N71W. Scattered showers are occurring along and east of the cold front, mainly north of 28N. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. The cold front west of the northern Bahamas will move south and stall along 24N Mon before dissipating Mon night. Surface ridge will build behind the front along roughly 28N through Wed, then shift slightly northward late Wed through mid week. For additional information please visit $$ ERA […]