- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on January 26, 2023 at 10:28 PM000 AXNT20 KNHC 262228 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda high and lower pressure over Colombia is causing easterly gales and sea heights of up to 12 ft off the coast of Colombia through the weekend. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, for more information. Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1012 mb currently near 24N36W will move SW and strengthen some through Fri night. As it does, strong SE winds to the N and E of the center will increase to gale-force from 26N to 30N between 35W and 39W on Friday. The low will stall around 21N45W and gradually weaken this weekend, and winds will gradually subside. Seas associated with the area of gales will reach 10 to 14 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information on this gale warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W to 00N31W to 00N37W to 01N44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 40W and 44W and from 00N to 08N between 11W and 25W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to far western Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted behind this front in the SE Gulf of Mexico and in the Bay of Campeche, along with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Scattered moderate convection is located along and within about 90 nm behind the cold front. Elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico, fresh NE winds are diminishing and seas are 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the passage of the cold front will gradually improve by Fri as the front moves into the NW Caribbean Sea. High pressure will follow the front. Fresh to locally strong southerly return flow will set-up this weekend in the NW Gulf in response to the next cold front that will be approaching the NW Gulf. This front is expected to move into the far northern Gulf Sun and Sun night, and stall along the northern Gulf through Mon night. As high pressure moves eastward into the western Atlantic, expect fresh to strong east winds across the Straits of Florida and the far SE Gulf Sat and Sat night and diminish Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information about a Gale Warning that is near the coast of Colombia for the next 24 hours or so. A cold front extends from far western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Convection associated with the front is mainly behind it, over Mexico, Belize, and north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh NE winds are occurring behind the front. Elsewhere across the basin, there is no significant convection as a surface ridge centered in the north Atlantic extends SW into the area, maintaining moderate to fresh trades, except strong NE to E winds in the south-central Caribbean. These strong winds, and previously mentioned gales, are leading to seas of 8 to 12 ft in the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas are 5 to 7 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, strong trade winds will continue over the south- central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. A cold front will move across the NW Caribbean through Fri, then stall and dissipate by Sat night. Strong NE to E winds are expected to affect the Windward Passage and Lee of Cuba Fri night through Sun night. Similar winds will resume in the Windward Passage Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information on a low pressure that will induce gales well SE of Bermuda on Friday. A cold front stretches from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and into the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 miles either side of the front. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft follow the front. To the east, scattered moderate convection associated with the low pressure depicted in the special features section above is extending N of 20N between 30W and 48W. Also in association with this low, winds N of 25N and E of 55W are strong and easterly, extending all the way to the Canary Islands. Seas in this zone of strong winds are 8 to 12 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, generally moderate to locally strong trades dominate, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N68W to central Cuba by Fri morning then stall. The western part of the front will begin to lift northward Sat. By Sun morning, a weakening frontal boundary will extent from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas. A tight pressure gradient across the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas across the Great Bahama Bank, the Straits of Florida and the Windward passage late Fri night through Sun night. Southerly flow will increase E of NE Florida by Sun night ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the western Atlantic on Mon. $$ KONARIK