- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on March 4, 2021 at 10:30 AM000 AXNT20 KNHC 041029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Mar 4 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Strong SW winds ahead of a cold front extending from 31N69W to northern Cuba will reach minimal gale- force north of 30N today. Vigorous showers and thunderstorms are occurring north of 26N and ahead of the cold front. A gale warning remains in effect for the waters north of 30N ahead of the front, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere north of 26N between 58W- 74W. Seas of 10-14 ft accompany these winds, and will peak at around 16 ft along 31N today. The gale warning will remain in effect through early afternoon today, with winds diminishing to fresh to strong ahead of the front thereafter. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast from the National Hurricane Center at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to 00N25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N- 05N between 15W-24W, with an area of moderate to strong convection noted from 04N-08N between 10W-13W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is across the Yucatan Channel. A few showers are associated with the frontal boundary. High pressure prevails across the northwestern part of the basin. Areas of low-level clouds dominate the Gulf. Winds are generally north to northeast at 10 to 15 kt. Buoy observations indicate seas are 3-5 ft across the region. High pressure will prevail across the basin through Fri. A low pressure system is expected develop in the NW Gulf on Fri night, then deepen and move rapidly eastward across the Gulf through Sat night. High pressure building behind the front will support strong E winds and building seas in the eastern Gulf Sun through Mon night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A slow-moving, nearly stationary front is across the Yucatan Channel. Weak 1018 mb high pressure is centered south of the front near Honduras. Low pressure is analyzed over northern Colombia near 09N75W. Fresh to strong winds continue in the south-central Caribbean where the pressure gradient is tighter, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere south of 16N, and gentle to moderate winds north of 16N. Seas are 7-9 ft in the southern Caribbean, 4-7 ft south of 16N east of 82W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. As is normal at this time of the year, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the area, producing isolated passing showers. The front across the Yucatan Channel will weaken across the NW Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will prevail in the southern Caribbean through Sun, with gentle to moderate winds expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the northwest Gulf Sat night and Sun, stall from the Windward Passage to Belize by Sun night, then dissipate Mon. Winds will become fresh to strong across the Caribbean on Sun as the pressure gradient in the wake of the next cold front significantly tightens due to building high pressure north of the area. Seas will also build significantly across those portions of the basin with the increasing winds. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Attention remains focused on the deepening low pressure located near Bermuda. See the Special Features Section above for details on the ongoing Gale Warning associated with this low. Several weak surface troughs are analyzed from 31N23W to 29N28W, from 31N39W to 28N45W, and from 32N54W to 26N64W. A cold front extends from a gale-force low near 33N67W through 31N69W, across the Bahamas to northern Cuba near 23N81W. A broad area of showers and thunderstorms are north of 26N ahead of the cold front to near 62W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters south of these features is dominated by ridging associated with a 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N34W. The cold front will weaken and stall from 24N65W to eastern Cuba on Fri. Strong SW winds to gale force will proceed the front over the waters north of 29N today. Looking ahead, a developing low pressure system will move rapidly from central Florida to Bermuda Sat night and Sun, possibly accompanied by winds to gale force, and dragging a cold front across the region Sun night and Mon. High pressure building in the wake of the front will produce a large area of fresh to strong N-NE winds across the waters south of 27N and west of 60W Sun and Mon. Seas will steadily build in response to the stronger winds across the waters west of 60W. $$ Mundell