Atlantic Discussion

    
            
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                NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
				
    
					
						by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on May 26, 2019 at 5:15 PM
					
					
    009 
 AXNT20 KNHC 261714
 TWDAT 
 Tropical Weather Discussion
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 114 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019
 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
 Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
 America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
 Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
 imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.
 Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
 1700 UTC.
 ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America...
 The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant 
 moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America
 during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
 mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. 
 Please refer to the local meteorological service for more 
 details.
 ...TROPICAL WAVES...
 A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed
 along 24W from 01N-10N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered 
 moderate convection is noted in the wave's environment from 04N-
 07N between 20W-27W. 
 A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic,
 with axis along 55W and from 01S-12N. The wave is moving at around 15
 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave's axis mainly 
 south of 04N.
 ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...
 The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Africa near 14N17W
 to 13N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N26W to 00N48W. Scattered 
 showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly west of 35W. 
 GULF OF MEXICO...
 Surface ridging extends across the basin from a 1022 mb high 
 pressure centered near 34N86W. Fair weather prevails under this 
 ridge across the whole basin. Scatterometer data depicts light to 
 gentle southeast winds in the northern Gulf, and moderate winds 
 in the Bay of Campeche and the central Gulf. Moderate to fresh 
 winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over 
 the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W.
 High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will 
 continue supporting moderate to fresh SE flow over the western 
 Gulf and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through mid week. A 
 trough forming over Yucatan each day and moving into the southwest
 Gulf will enhance winds reaching fresh to strong categories 
 during the evening hours. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico 
 will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and 
 eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the week. 
 CARIBBEAN SEA...
 Scattered moderate convection continues across the south-central 
 Caribbean mainly south of 15N between 73W-84W. Lighter activity is
 noted north of 15N affecting eastern Cuba, Windward Passage,
 Hispaniola, Jamaica and adjacent waters. See the section above 
 for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central 
 America.
 Light to gentle trades are noted in most of the basin, with 
 moderate winds in the northwest Caribbean and north of Colombia. 
 Additionally, fresh winds are noted off the coast of Nicaragua. 
 High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally
 fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. 
 Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern
 Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much 
 of the western Caribbean through the early part of the week. A 
 tropical wave east of the area near 55W will move west
 into the eastern Caribbean Mon, then into the central Caribbean
 through mid week as it weakens.
 ATLANTIC OCEAN...
 Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves 
 currently moving across the basin. 
 A cold front is dropping across the west-central Atlantic, 
 extending from 31N51W to 26N64W to 27N75W, then becoming
 stationary to 31N77W. Meanwhile, ahead of the front a surface 
 trough extends from 29N50W to 22N71W. Scattered showers are 
 occurring along and east of the cold front, mainly north of 
 28N. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of 
 the basin.
 The cold front west of the northern Bahamas will move south and 
 stall along 24N Mon before dissipating Mon night. Surface ridge 
 will build behind the front along roughly 28N through Wed, then 
 shift slightly northward late Wed through mid week. 
 For additional information please visit 
 http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine
 $$
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