- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on January 16, 2025 at 5:37 PM000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 161737<br />TWDAT<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1815 UTC Thu Jan 16 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />1800 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Atlantic Significant Swell Event: NW swell has propagated into <br />the northern discussion waters, with seas 12 ft or greater over <br />the waters N of 27N between 45W and 70W. Seas are currently <br />peaking near 15 ft. Seas 12 ft or greater will shift eastward <br />through tonight while slowly subsiding. By early Fri, seas will <br />decrease below 12 ft. <br /><br />Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the <br />National Hurricane Center at the website: <br />https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic waters near 09N13W and <br />extends southwestward to 01N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N26W to <br />01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 250 nm of <br />the ITCZ/monsoon trough.<br /><br />...GULF OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A 1018 mb low is centered near 26N91W. A cold front extends from <br />the low southwestward to 20N95W. A stationary front extends from <br />the low eastward into the Florida Straits. A surface trough also <br />extends from the low southward across the Bay of Campeche to <br />inland Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are <br />observed in an area north of 23N between the stationary front and <br />the trough. Fresh to strong E to NE winds are N of the stationary <br />front to about 28N, while fresh to strong NW winds are to the N <br />and W of both the low and cold front. Moderate to fresh E winds <br />are N of 28N, while moderate to fresh S winds are S of the <br />stationary front. Seas are 7-11 ft to the N and W of both the low <br />and cold front. Seas are 3-7 ft across the remainder of the basin.<br /><br />For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to NW winds and rough seas <br />will occur over northern and western portions of the basin today <br />as a low pressure system moves southeastward through the Gulf of <br />Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are expected <br />across the basin on Fri and Sat ahead of a cold front moving <br />through the southern U.S. and into the northwestern Gulf on Sat. <br />Fresh N winds will follow the front on Sat, with winds <br />strengthening to strong across much of the basin on Sun. Rough <br />seas will accompany these winds Sun through early next week. <br />Looking ahead, another strong cold front will lead to fresh to <br />strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the Gulf of <br />Mexico early next week. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />A shear line is analyzed across the eastern, central, and SW <br />Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail north of the shear <br />line over the central to NE Caribbean and the northern Caribbean <br />Passages, with seas in the 6-8 ft range in these regions. Moderate<br />to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere<br />south of the shear line and in the NW Caribbean.<br /><br />For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will occur across <br />the southwestern, central and northeastern Caribbean through this <br />weekend as a tight pressure gradient prevails between low pressure<br />in northwestern Colombia and high pressure in the western <br />Atlantic. Winds will pulse to strong speeds offshore of Colombia, <br />through the Mona Passage and downwind of Hispaniola, and rough <br />seas will accompany the strong winds. Long-period NE to E swell <br />will lead to rough seas through the Atlantic Passages this weekend<br />into early next week. Looking ahead, fresh to strong E to NE <br />winds and building seas will impact much of the basin early next <br />week as a strong cold front moves through the Gulf of Mexico. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on<br />significant swell in the Atlantic.<br /><br />A front extends from 31N47W to the northern coast of Hispaniola. <br />A second cold front extends from 31N55W to 26N69W. Moderate to<br />fresh W to NW winds are N of 26N between 45W and 70W, with <br />localized areas of strong winds along and north of 30N. Another<br />area of moderate to fresh E winds is analyzed via scatterometer<br />data E of 24W between 22N and 28N. Gentle to moderate E to NE <br />winds generally prevail elsewhere across the basin. Aside from the<br />area of 12 ft or greater seas mentioned in the Special Features<br />section, 8 ft or greater seas cover the waters N of a line<br />extending from 31N33W to 24N63W to 31N74W. Moderate seas prevail <br />across the remainder of the basin.<br /><br />For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front in the central Atlantic <br />will progress eastward today, producing fresh to strong SW winds <br />ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds behind <br />the front, generally north of 28N and east of 60W. A long-period N<br />swell associated with this system will produce widespread rough <br />seas across much of the Atlantic into this weekend, producing seas<br />in excess of 8 ft north of 25N and east of 75W today, and north <br />of 20N by Fri morning. Seas greater than 12 ft are expected north <br />of 28N and east of 70W today. A strong cold front moving off the <br />coast of the southeastern United States will reinforce rough seas <br />north of 28N and east of 80W by Fri morning. Fresh to strong W to <br />NW winds, generally north of 28N, will follow the front. South of <br />20N, moderate to fresh trades and locally rough seas will prevail.<br />Looking ahead, another cold front moving off the coast of the <br />southeastern U.S. will lead to strong winds and building seas in <br />the northwestern Tropical Atlantic Sat into early next week.<br /><br />$$<br />Adams