- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on September 19, 2024 at 10:18 AM000 AXNT20 KNHC 191017 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Sep 19 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the eastern Atlantic with near 34W, from 05N to 20N, moving westward at 5 kt. No deep or significant convection is noted in the wave environment. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 13N to 18N between 79W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues west-southwestward to 10N30W and then to 14N42W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 04N to 13N between 09W and 23W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the basin along with slight seas, except for locally moderate SE winds over the E Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface trough across Florida is supporting scattered showers along the Florida coastal waters S of Cedar Key. For the forecast, weak surface ridging over the Gulf waters will support gentle to locally moderate easterly winds and slight seas through the upcoming weekend. Moderate winds may pulse in the eastern Bay of Campeche nightly through the next several days. A cold front is forecast to clip the far NE waters today into Fri with little change in winds and seas. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the western and NW Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the N or NW over the NW Caribbean Sea and into the SE Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. Regardless of development, winds and seas will start increasing across the SE Gulf by late Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure located north of Hispaniola forces moderate to fresh easterly winds in the central Caribbean and moderate trades in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5-6 ft in the central basin and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Otherwise, a tropical wave moving across Central America and portions of the NW Caribbean is generating scattered showers and tstms over the offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica and portions of Panama. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas across the E and central Caribbean, and light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas across the NW and SW portions of the basin through at least Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure could form late this weekend or early next week over the western and northwestern Caribbean Sea. Thereafter, gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through the middle part of next week. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next seven days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A well-defined area of low pressure located a few hundred miles to the NW of the remnants of Gordon near 25N54W is producing fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters N of 25N and E of 60W. West of 60W and to the NE of the central Bahamas, a 1015 mb high is supporting light to gentle variable winds and slight to moderate seas while a mid to upper level trough supports scattered showers over the central and northern Bahamas as well as the Great Bahama Bank. Over the central subtropical waters, a pair of lows, one the remnants of Gordon, supports scattered heavy showers and tstms between 35W and 60W. Aside from the convection, these areas of low pressure also linked to a stationary front are supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Over the subtropical waters E of 35W, winds are light to gentle and seas slight to moderate. For the forecast W of 55W, the low pressure located to the NW of the remnants of Gordon has potential for some additional development as it meanders over the open waters of the central or western Subtropical Atlantic though early next week. Regardless of development, the low will continue to affect the NE offshore waters with fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 25N and E of 60W through Fri. Expect pulsing moderate to fresh trades off the coast of Hispaniola through Fri. Otherwise, a weak cold front will move off the SE CONUS tonight and slowly move across the waters N of 25N through Mon. A reinforcing front will enter the NW offshores waters Mon followed by fresh winds and rough seas. $$ Ramos