- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on November 14, 2025 at 10:28 AM000AXNT20 KNHC 141028TWDATTropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Fri Nov 14 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 07N22W. TheITCZ has formed from 07N22W to 08N27W and then continues from08N40W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south ofthe eastern segment of the ITCZ to 02N. ...GULF OF AMERICA...A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N87W. Fresh NE winds and moderate seas reach from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel, between this high pressure and lower pressure over the Caribbean. Gentle to moderate NE winds and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the northeast Gulf will weaken and slide southward into the SE Gulf into the weekend.This will cause moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the Florida Straits to Yucatan Channel to diminish today, leaving the basin with moderate or weaker winds through the weekend. For next week, moderate to fresh return southerly flow will develop over the western Gulf, as the high remains centered east of the area. ...CARIBBEAN SEA...A surface trough is inducing scattered moderate convection in theGulf of Honduras. Fresh NE winds are noted in the NW Carribean, Nof 18N. Fresh trades are also ongoing offshore Colombia. Moderatetrades prevail over the central Caribbean, with mainly gentlewinds elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the basin this morning. For the forecast, fresh NE winds S of Cuba will gradually diminish into tonight as high pressure to the N weakens. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight will also weaken the overall gradient decreases, and a gentle to moderate trade wind regime becomes established for the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN...Gale-force westerly winds have ended over the far easternAtlantic, but strong winds will prevail today offshore Morocco,extending west across Madeira and to around 30W, N of 32N. A stationary front extends from near 31N53W to N of Hispaniola.This front is weakening, and winds are mainly moderate to locallyfresh N and W of the boundary, and light to gentle to the S and Eof E. Moderate seas prevail on both sides of it, but northerlyswell is leading to some rough seas N of 29N on either side of theboundary. To the E of 50W, these rough seas extend S to around25N. Tradewinds are relatively modest this morning, with gentle tomoderate E winds dominating waters S of 22N. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will slowly dissipate through tonight. A cold front will enter northern waterslater today, then track to near 31N55W to N of Hispaniola Sat, before stalling. The boundary will then dissipate by the start of next week. Winds toward 30N will increase behind the front, reach fresh to locally strong speeds by Sun into Mon. Rough seas in mainly northerly swell will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week.$$Konarik