- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on September 29, 2022 at 12:43 AM000 AXNT20 KNHC 290042 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Sep 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. CORRECTED ATLANTIC SECTION Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Ian is centered near 27.2N 81.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 30 nm NE of Punta Gorda Florida moving NNE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are 27 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is inland Florida and along its coastal waters as well as in the offshores waters N of the northern Bahamas. On the forecast track, the center of Ian is expected to move across central Florida tonight and Thursday morning and emerge over the western Atlantic by late Thursday. Ian is forecast to turn northward on Friday and approach the northeastern Florida coast, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday. Further weakening is expected for the next day or so, but Ian could be near hurricane strength when it moves over the Florida East coast tomorrow, and when it approaches the northeastern Florida, Georgia and South Carolina coasts late Friday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Depression Eleven center located near 16.7N 34.7W at 28/2100 UTC, or 615 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NNW at 8 kt. Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 11 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. A general north to north-northwest motion is forecast over the next several days until the system dissipates. Some slight strengthening could occur overnight, but weakening is expected to begin by tomorrow with the system dissipating by Saturday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 09N to 20N with axis near 26W, moving W at around 10 kt. The wave lack significant convection at the moment. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through northern Mauritania from 16N16W to 10N24W to 08N30W then resumes SW of T.D. Eleven near 12N38W to 10N47W. The ITCZ extends from 10N47W to 12N59W. Aside from the convection associated with T.D. Eleven, numerous moderate to strong convection is coming off the W coast of Africa from 03N to 14N between 07W and 19W. GULF OF MEXICO... Even though Major Hurricane Ian is already inland Florida centered near 27.2N 81.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 30 nm NE of Punta Gorda Florida, tropical storm force winds extend nearly 90 nm off the western coast of Florida from Cedar Key to Marco Island while near gale force winds extend farther west to 93W and N of 24N. Peak seas are 27 ft and are higher along the western Florida coastal waters, however seas to 12 ft reach as far as 93W. Numerous moderate convection is along the coast as well. Ian will move into central Florida to near 27.8N 81.6W Thu morning, then weaken to a tropical storm and enter Atlantic waters near 28.8N 81.0W Thu afternoon. Ian will move then move north toward 30.0N 80.6W Fri morning then continue north into South Carolina waters through late Fri. Winds and seas will gradually diminish across the northeast Gulf Thu night through Fri night, with light breezes and slight seas persisting across the basin thereafter. Looking ahead, a cold front may enter the northeast Gulf late Sat or Sun then stall and dissipate. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and large seas are still occurring across the Yucatan Channel due to large northerly swell from Hurricane Ian. Isolated showers are occuring across the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the basin with seas to 4 ft. For the forecast, large N swell associated with Ian will persist in the Yucatan Channel through early Fri. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Hurricane Ian is already inland Florida centered near 27.2N 81.7W at 28/0000 UTC or 30 nm NE of Punta Gorda Florida. However, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is already affecting the eastern Florida coastal waters as well as the offshore waters N of the northern Bahamas. In addition, tropical storm force winds from Ian extends along most of E Florida coastal waters with near gale force winds extending as far as 78W. Seas W of 78W range between 8 to 12 ft already and will continue to build as Ian continue its NNE track across Florida tonight. The remainder basin is under the influence of the Azores High, which is supporting mainly moderate to locally fresh trades in the subtropical Atlantic waters. Ian will move inland to 27.8N 81.6W Thu morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 28.8N 81.0W Thu afternoon, 30.0N 80.6W Fri morning, 31.9N 80.6W Fri afternoon, inland to 34.0N 81.0W Sat morning, and weaken as an extratropical cyclone near 36.0N 81.5W Sat afternoon. Ian will dissipate Sun afternoon. $$ Ramos