- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on January 28, 2020 at 5:52 AM000 AXNT20 KNHC 280552 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1252 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges off the coast of Senegal near 13N16W to 03N22W. The ITCZ axis continues from 03N22W to 02S41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from the equator to 05N between 07W and 21W, and south of the ITCZ from 03S-00N between 21W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 27N83W with a trailing cold front extending SW through 20N90W, and a warm front extending eastward to near Tampa Bay, Florida. Scattered showers are occurring E of the front E of 87W in the SE Gulf to across the Straits of Florida, while earlier thunderstorms have dissipated. A surface trough extends westward from the low pressure to 27N86W. No significant convection is observed near the trough axis. An area of moderate to fresh winds were noted N side of the low, with mainly light winds elsewhere behind the front. Low pressure will track eastward through tonight, then east-southeast, reaching S Florida by early Tue while the front sags S and slowly dissipates. Another cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night, weakening by the time it reaches the SE Gulf Wed night ahead of a third cold front, forecast to move across the Gulf waters Thu night through late Sat. It is expected to be followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas to near 10 ft. CARIBBEAN SEA... Light showers are streaming across the southwestern Caribbean from 12N-17N between 74W-83W. A surface trough was analyzed south of PR NE across the U.S. Virgin Islands into the central Atlantic. An area of light to moderate showers are near the trough axis. Some scattered showers were also noted over Cuba and Hispaniola. Elsewhere across the basin, no significant surface features were noted with only the occasional area of isolated showers. Relatively weak high pressure across the region will maintain rather quiet conditions over the forecast waters allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across most of the Caribbean Sea. Winds will begin to increase across the south-central Caribbean Thu night through Sat night, with strong to near gale force winds near the coast of Colombia at that time. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A developing cold front has entered the forecast area in the western Atlantic with a surface trough 100 nm ahead of the front. Further east, a trough extends from NW Bahamas to 28N68W. A weak cold front extends from near 31N58W to 25N69W, with showers noted in the vicinity of the trough from the Bahamas eastward to 30N54W. This is associated to the trough and the cold front near the area. This front will slowly move E while dissipating. Mainly gentle to moderate winds were noted over the offshore waters along with fairly low seas. Over the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 31N36W to the U.S. Virgin Islands with scattered showers and thunderstorms noted N of 18N to 27N. North of 27N, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen between 33W-38W. A 1026 mb high pressure was analyzed to the east near 31N17W. Winds will begin to increase across the northern forecast waters later tonight as a cold front reaches the area. The front will extend from 31N70W to SE Florida by Tue morning, and from 31N60W to the central Bahamas by Tue night. A low pressure system will move across northern Florida Wed, emerge off the coast Wed night, then track east across the area through Thu night. A ridge is forecast to dominate the area Fri and Fri night. Another low pressure system moving along the coast from Georgia to the Carolinas is forecast to bring fresh to strong southerly winds across the NW waters Fri night into Sat. $$ MMTorres