- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on July 10, 2025 at 10:06 AM552 AXNT20 KNHC 101006TWDAT Tropical Weather DiscussionNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL1215 UTC Thu Jul 10 2025Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central AmericaGulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of SouthAmerica, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from theEquator to 31N. The following information is based on satelliteimagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC....TROPICAL WAVES...A tropical wave is analyzed near 21W from 04N-19N, moving west ataround 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N-13Nbetween the coast of Africa and 25W.A tropical wave is analyzed near 38W, from 05N-18N, moving west at around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the waveaxis. A tropical wave is analyzed near 66W from 20N to northern Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave.A tropical wave is analyzed near 82W from 07-22N, and is moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen in thefar SW Caribbean, and also from 14-17N between 80-85W....MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, then continuesto 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 05N53W. Other than theconvection mentioned above in the tropical wave section, scatteredmoderate convection is observed from 06-09N between 23-30W....GULF OF AMERICA...A 1020 mb high is centered over the north-central Gulf near 27N86W. A couple of surface troughs are analyzed over the east coast of Mexico, and over the Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderateconvection is noted near the Bay of Campeche trough. This patternotherwise is supporting gentle to moderate breezes across the Gulf with slight seas, with the exception of the Bay of Campeche where winds are moderate to fresh.For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basinthrough the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to eastwinds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsulaeach afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily andshifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night....CARIBBEAN SEA...Refer to the section above for details on convection associatedwith the tropical waves moving through the basin. Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves,scattered moderate convection is ongoing over coastal portions of Hispaniola, Cuba, and Honduras. A strong Bermuda High and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean continue to generate a tight pressure gradient that is resulting in fresh to strong E winds in the central to SW Caribbean with rough seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean, while moderate or lighter winds are elsewhere with slight seas.For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressureand relatively lower pressure in Colombian will continue tosupport pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across thesouth-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Fresh east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, through the end of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean, while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere....ATLANTIC OCEAN...Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wavesmoving across the basin.Scattered thunderstorms are active along a trough over the northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, the entire subtropical waters are under the influence of the Bermuda-Azores High, which is supporting moderate to fresh E winds from 10-25N between 35-75W, except for fresh to strong E winds and rough seas north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of the Atlantic waters. Moderate seas prevailelsewhere across the basin.For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging will shift southward today, then begin to lift back N afterward. The related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong east to southeast winds off the northern coastof Hispaniola through Sat and fresh winds Sun and moderate to fresh winds early next week. $$ERA