- NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on April 8, 2020 at 5:14 AM000 AXNT20 KNHC 080514 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 110 AM Wed Apr 08 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 03N31W and to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is within 200 nm of the ITCZ axis between 33W-47W. Isolated thunderstorms are within 75 nm of the ITCZ and monsoon trough between 15W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure, both at the surface and aloft, is stretching across the entire basin anchored by a 1017 mb high off the NW coast of Florida near 28N85W. Low clouds are noted in the Bay of Campeche. The latest scatterometer data and surface observations depict light to gentle winds across the basin with moderate winds north of the Yucatan. High pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters through Thu. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf late Thu night, then stall and weaken across the southern Gulf Fri night. Southerly winds will increase across the basin this weekend. Smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico may reduce visibilities over the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. CARIBBEAN SEA... Like the Gulf of Mexico basin, generally weak high pressure is present across the Caribbean Sea. In addition, dry air associated with a mid-level ridge over the NW Caribbean and strong winds aloft over the remainder of the Caribbean continue to inhibit deep convection from developing. However, scattered showers are moving across Puerto Rico. The gradient between the high pressure and the low is producing gentle to moderate trade winds across just about the entire Caribbean, except for moderate to fresh winds in the Gulf of Venezuela. High pressure over the SW N Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Thu morning. Fresh winds will pulse each night over the Gulf of Honduras, becoming strong this weekend. Long-period northerly swell will affect the waters east of the Lesser Antilles tonight, and again Thu night through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging spans across the western Atlantic anchored by a 1018 mb high near 27N72W. In the central Atlantic, mid-level troughing continues to dig across the area. At the surface, a 1010 mb low is located near 33N54W with a trough extending southeast of the low to 27N47W. Isolated thunderstorms are within 150 nm of the trough. Another trough extends across the Atlantic from 22N50W to the northern Lesser Antilles islands near 17N63W. No significant convection is associated with this feature. High pressure continues to dominate the eastern Atlantic anchored by a 1023 mb high near 27N23W. High pressure will prevail east of Florida through Wed. A trough will cross the northern waters Wed night and Thu. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the N waters ahead of the trough. A cold front will move SE across the region Thu night through Sat night. Southerly winds will increase E of Florida Sat night through Sun night. $$ AR