Atlantic Discussion

  • NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
    by (nhcwebmaster) on March 21, 2019 at 5:53 PM

    000 AXNT20 KNHC 211753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 153 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Sierra Leone coast near 07N12W to 01N21W. The ITCZ continues from 01N21W to 01S27W to the coast of Brazil near 06S35W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N- 02S between 27W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is also noted from 05N- 05S between 15W- 23W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front moving across the northwest Gulf of Mexico is dissipating. It stretches from Destin FL to just south of Corpus Christi TX. Meanwhile, surface high pressure continues to build across the Gulf. This ridging is anchored by a 1026 mb high located in the central Plains of the U.S. Farther south, a trough is along the Mexican coastline in the southwest Gulf of Mexico from 23N98W to 19N95W. Scattered showers are seen on satellite adjacent to this trough along with the southeast Gulf. Winds are generally out of the north- northwest 10-20 kts throughout the basin. In response to the trough in the southwest Gulf, some winds are out of the northeast to the east of this feature. A ridge will dominate the Gulf region over the next several days producing mainly a moderate to locally fresh wind flow, except off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula where late evening local effects will keep brief periods of NE winds to 20 kt. CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from east Cuba near 21N78W southwestward into northern Honduras near 16N88W. Along this front, scattered showers are seen on satellite stretching into the Caribbean in addition to Belize and Honduras. Showers are also ahead of the front from far eastern Cuba to the north of Jamaica. Elsewhere, scattered showers are moving across Hispaniola and Puerto Rico along with the Lesser Antilles. Farther south, showers were moving off the northern coast of Venezuela into the central Caribbean. Trade winds are moderate to fresh across most of the basin. In the northwest Caribbean near the front, winds are out of the northwest between moderate to fresh behind the front. Light southerly winds are ahead of the front. An upper level ridge is bringing strong subsidence to the basin, inhibiting convection across the area. The cold front is allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient in the south- central Caribbean. However, fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse at night within 90 nm off the coast of Colombia through Friday night. The cold front will drift southeast today and tonight while gradually dissipating. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate across the remainder of the basin through Sun. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The primary cold front in the western Atlantic extends southwest from a 1011 mb low near 29N68W to another 1013 mb low off the north- central coast of Cuba near 22N78W. East of the 1011 mb low, a stationary front stretches eastward from the low into the central Atlantic. Scattered showers are within 130 nm along the front. Another cold front that is associated with a deepening 1009 mb low off the U.S. Mid- Atlantic coast enters the waters near 31N76W to the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers are seen off the southeast Florida coast near this front. A pre-frontal trough is also to the east of this cold front anchored by a 1013 mb low near 28N74W to 23N81W. Across the rest of the basin, surface ridging is over the central and eastern Atlantic north of 15N and east of 69W. The primary cold front will remain nearly stationary today and tonight. Then, the cold front off the Florida east coast will merge with the stationary front on Friday, and the merged front will extends from 27N65W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba by Friday night. Swell generated by these fronts will dominate the waters east of the Bahamas through the upcoming weekend. For additional information please visit $$ AKR […]