Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by (nhcwebmaster) on June 24, 2018 at 4:19 PM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 241619 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 1500 UTC newly upgraded Tropical Storm Daniel was located near 16.0N 115.9W or about 535 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, moving north at 9 kt. The minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is seen in satellite imagery occurring in bands within 90 nm across the SE semicircle, while scattered moderate to strong convection is seen within 120 nm across the SE and 75 nm across the NW semicircles. Daniel is expected to remain well offshore as it continues moving northward today then bends more toward the NW this evening through Tue. There is opportunity for Daniel to strengthen slightly through Mon morning before it begins to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, which in induce a gradual weakening trend. The cyclone will likely became a remnant low by the middle of the week. See the NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 10.5N87W TO 10N95W to low pressure near 15.5N105W 1010 mb to 15N108W, then resumes near 12N118W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W and continues to 09N132W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 78W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W...FROM 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 110W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W AND 123W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less, prevail across the offshore waters west of Baja California this morning, due to a low level trough along about 118W drifting westward and away from the coast. Morning observations show strong winds of 10-15 kt blowing cyclonically around Cabo San Lucas and the southern tip of the peninsula. Winds are expected to remain variable 10 kt or less today and then will become from the NW increasing to a max of 15 kt in the afternoon along the coasts due developing sea breezes. Gentle to moderate NW winds are then expected to develop over the next few days as the low level trough weakens and shifts farther NW. Southerly winds inside the northern Gulf of California are estimated at 15-20 kt north of 29N, while light to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas in the region of strongest winds are up to 6 ft while 2-3 ft seas are south of 29N. Winds and seas will subside slightly late this afternoon and tonight, before a weak pressure pattern and variable winds prevail Mon through Wed. Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell is peaking across the regional waters this morning from central Baja California to Central America. Seas of 5 to near 8 ft prevail from the mouth of the Gulf of California to Tehuantepec and will build to 7-8 ft by midday and continue through the afternoon, before slowly subsiding tonight through Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell is peaking across the waters this morning, producing seas of 7-9 ft, and will begin gradually subside later today through Mon. A tropical wave across Central America along about 92W will continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active convection in the region during this time. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to near 126W. To the S and SW of the ridge to just N of the ITCZ, moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift NW and reorganize, while the weak trough offshore of Baja California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W, producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7-10 ft across the northern waters. Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is propagating into the northern waters today, and has built seas modestly to 9 ft north of 27N between 121W and 132W. The cross- equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical waters south of 20N and west of 120W and will maintain seas 5-7 ft there through Mon. A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15.5N105W, and generating scattered moderate to strong convection within 180 nm southeast of the center. Global models indicate that this low will linger across this area through at least Mon and continue to generate active convection. $$ Stripling […]