Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on January 26, 2023 at 8:33 PM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 262033 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front has passed by north of the area in the Gulf of Mexico with northerly gale- force winds ushered in its wake in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds currently up to around 40 kt, and seas are 8 to 14 ft. Gale- force winds will persist into Sat, peaking around 45 kt tonight. Seas will peak around 18 ft near 14N95.5W later early Fri. Meanwhile, the extent of 12 ft seas will extend southward to around 10N and westward to around 100W by Fri. Conditions will gradually improve Sat night into Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 08N81W to 05N91W. The ITCZ axis extends from 05N91W to 05N126 to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N E of 89W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A strong high pressure is centered well northwest of the area. Strong NW to N winds are occurring over the Gulf of California including south of the entrance with seas of 6 to 9 ft south of 30N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail over the Baja California offshore waters, except locally strong downwind of Baja California gaps. Seas are ranging 7-10 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California southeast to around 107W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters with seas ranging 4-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, out of the the gale in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, strong to near- gale NW winds will persist over the Gulf of California through Fri with seas building to 7-10 ft. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will prevail west of Baja California, except plumes of strong NE winds will occur downwind of gaps, filtering through from the Gulf of California. Conditions over Baja California offshore waters and the Gulf of California will improve Fri night, with the NW swell of 7-10 ft subsiding as well. A cold front may approach the Baja California peninsula Mon with building winds and seas from Punta Eugenia northward. A new set of large NW swell may arrive offshore Baja California Mon night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE-E gap winds prevail over the waters of the Gulf of Papagayo region, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail across the rest of the offshore waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure over the Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region into next week, with near gale-force at times. Seas will build to 8-11 ft tonight through Sat night. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds will develop in the Gulf of Panama tonight, then increase to fresh to strong Fri night through Sun with seas building to 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, swell from the developing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind will cause seas to build to 8-12 ft tonight into Sat night in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell of 8-11 ft is moving across our waters north of 03N and west of 108W. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell elsewhere, except mixed with SW swell east of around 110W. Meanwhile, strong high pressure is centered well north of the area. This high along with lower pressures along the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. Gentle to moderate S winds are occurring south of the ITCZ and across the remainder of the waters north of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the set of NW swell will continue progressing southeastward through Fri. Seas will then slowly subside through the weekend. A new set of NW swell will drop south of 30N early next week behind a cold front, along with fresh winds. Meanwhile, the moderate to fresh tradewinds will continue through early next week. $$ KONARIK