Pacific Discussion

  • NHC Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on February 13, 2025 at 3:39 AM

    287 <br />AXPZ20 KNHC 130338<br />TWDEP <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0405 UTC Thu Feb 13 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from<br />03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and<br />from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following<br />information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,<br />radar, and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through<br />0330 UTC.<br /><br />...SPECIAL FEATURES...<br /><br />Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh to strong N winds will <br />develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Thu night into Fri <br />morning, as the pressure gradient increases between a cold front <br />moving through the western Gulf of Mexico and high pressure <br />building over central Mexico. Winds will briefly reach gale force<br />late Fri morning, with winds remaining strong through Fri night.<br />Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Winds and seas <br />will diminish Sat morning. <br /><br />...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...<br /><br />The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N125W. The ITCZ <br />continues from 04N125W to 06N134W, and resumes near 06N137W and <br />continues beyond 05N140W. A trough has been analyzed from 04N136W<br />to 11N133W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N <br />to 11N between 108W and 121W. <br /><br />...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...<br /><br />A 1019 mb high centered near 26N128W extends ridging through the<br />Mexico offshore waters, and a trough has been analyzed over Baja<br />California. Farther east, a 1000 mb low is centered over east- <br />central Mexico. This pattern supports moderate NW winds over the <br />waters offshore of Baja California and offshore of southwestern <br />Mexico, with locally fresh winds occurring offshore of Jalisco <br />and between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle to moderate<br />N to NW winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft are <br />noted through the Baja California offshore waters, with slight <br />seas occurring through the Gulf of California and offshore of <br />southwestern Mexico. <br /><br />For the forecast, away from developing gale force winds in the <br />Gulf of Tehuantepec, locally fresh NW winds will be possible <br />between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro as well as offshore of <br />Jalisco at times through Thu. A cold front is forecast to move <br />into the Baja California Norte waters early Fri, and moderate to <br />fresh N to NW winds will follow the front as it progresses <br />southeastward through the Baja California waters through Sat. <br />Winds are also forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds <br />ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California on Fri, <br />with seas building to around 7 ft. A new long-period NW swell <br />associated with the front will produce rough to very rough seas <br />north of 28N by Fri morning, and north of 20N by Sat morning. <br />Peak seas of 12 to 14 ft are expected north of Punta Eugenia Fri <br />afternoon through Sat morning. Looking ahead, strong to near-gale<br />force winds will redevelop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec on Sun and<br />continue into early next week. <br /><br />...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, <br />AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...<br /><br />Moderate to locally fresh E winds are noted in the Gulf of <br />Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia and <br />high pressure remains in the northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, <br />light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail in the <br />remainder of the forecast waters. <br /><br />For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong NE to E winds will <br />occur in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as a tight <br />pressure gradient prevails between high pressure in the <br />northwestern Caribbean and low pressure over northwestern <br />Colombia. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Winds <br />may briefly decrease this weekend before fresh to strong winds <br />redevelop early next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds <br />and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters <br />offshore of Central and South America into early next week. <br /><br />...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...<br /><br />Broad ridging extends through much of the eastern Pacific <br />waters, with a 1019 mb high centered near 26N128W and a 1020 mb <br />high near 25N138W. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are <br />occurring between 08N and 18N west of 110W along the periphery of<br />the ridge, and a residual N to NW swell is producing seas of 8 <br />to 9 ft in this region. Elsewhere, gentle winds are noted near <br />the center of the high pressure. A tightening pressure gradient <br />between the ridge and a cold front north of the area is <br />supporting moderate to locally fresh W winds north of 28.5N and <br />west of 125W. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and <br />slight to moderate seas prevail south of the monsoon trough and <br />ITCZ. <br /><br />For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between high <br />pressure over the eastern Pacific and the approaching cold front <br />will support fresh to locally strong W to SW winds ahead of the <br />front through Thu, generally north of 28N. Winds will turn to the<br />NW and weaken behind the front. A new long-period NW swell <br />associated with this front will produce rough seas north of 28N <br />Thu morning, and north of 23N by Fri morning. Peak seas of 12 to <br />16 ft are expected north of 25N Thu evening through Sat morning, <br />before seas slowly diminish on Sun. Elsewhere, rough seas <br />promoted by a residual NW swell will prevail from 08N to 20N west<br />of 130W on Thu before being reinforced by the aforementioned new<br />NW swell. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected between <br />10N and 20N west of 115W through this weekend. Looking ahead, a <br />new NW swell will support rough seas in the northwestern waters, <br />north of 10N and west of 120W, Sun into early next week. <br /><br />$$<br />ADAMS