Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by (nhcwebmaster) on April 26, 2018 at 3:28 AM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 260328 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 328 UTC Thu Apr 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 06N100W. The intertropical convergence zone continues from 06N100W to 08N110W to 05N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm north of the trough between 85W and 92W. Scattered moderate convection also noted along the ITCZ from 04N to 11N between 110W and 125W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 1020 mb high pressure west of Baja California near 27N125W will dissipate overnight ahead of a weakening cold front advancing from the west. The front will dissipate before reaching the coast of Baja California through late Thu. A ridge will build in the wake of the front, allowing NW winds in the offshore waters to become fresh by late Thu. Seas will build to 8 ft by Thu night off Baja California Sur south of Cabo San Lazaro toward the Revillagigedo Islands in a combination of the 15 to 20 kt NW flow and longer period NW swell propagating through the region. The fresh NW winds will spread Fri into Sat and becoming locally strong as troughing forms over the Colorado River valley north of the region. The large area of fresh to occasionally strong NW winds will allow 8 to 10 ft seas off the Baja California coast through Sun. Light to gentle W to NW winds are expected in the Gulf of California through Sat. Farther south, fresh to strong northerly winds are possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend, particularly during Sat morning as high pressure builds over the western Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds are expected through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh northeast nocturnal winds are expected in and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, resuming on Sunday night. Gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail elsewhere N of 09N, and light to gentle SW winds are expected S of 09N with seas of 4-6 ft. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from 31N1301W to 24N140W. This front will move slowly east while dissipating into a trough overnight into early Thu. A ridge will build behind the dissipating front through the weekend. Moderate to fresh northeast trade winds and 7-9 ft seas are observed across the tropical waters between 07N and 20N, south of the subtropical ridge and north of the the ITCZ. These winds will increase to fresh to locally strong as the pressure increases north of this region into the upcoming weekend. This will also result in an increase of the areal coverage of seas of 8-9 ft. 7-8 ft southerly swell observed south of the equator between 90W and 120W will gradually subside through Thu morning. Trade wind convergence along the ITCZ along with upper divergence south of an ridge aloft near 14N113W is resulting in scattered showers and thunderstorms 04N to 11N between 110W and 125W $$ Christensen […]