Pacific Discussion

    
            
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                NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
				
    
					
						by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on May 26, 2019 at 9:24 PM
					
					
    203 
 AXPZ20 KNHC 262123
 TWDEP
 Tropical Weather Discussion
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 1946 UTC Sun May 26 2019
 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
 the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
 based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
 meteorological analysis.
 Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
 2100 UTC.
 ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 ...Heavy Rainfall Potential Over Central America...
 A large low level cyclonic circulation that is typical for this 
 time of the year, called a Central American Gyre, is forecast to 
 persist across the far eastern tropical Pacific and Central 
 America for the next several days. This will continue bringing 
 abundant moisture and areas of heavy rainfall across portions of 
 Central America. Computer model forecasts have begun to indicate 
 the chance for increasing moisture and instability associated 
 with this feature Tue through Wed and could lead to a very 
 significant rainfall event. Life-threatening flash flooding and 
 mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrain. 
 Please refer to your local meteorological service for more 
 details. 
 ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 The monsoon trough extends across northern Costa Rica to a low 
 pressure located near 10N88W 1010 mb to 08N100W to 06N120W TO 
 06.5N130W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N130W to beyond 07N140W. 
 Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N TO 
 14N between 80W AND 106W. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
 convection is noted from 05N TO 12N between 84W AND 106W.
 ...DISCUSSION...
 OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... 
 Gulf of California: Fresh to strong winds are noted per scatterometer
 data across the northern part of the Gulf. Over the central and 
 southern parts of the Gulf, mainly light and variable winds 
 prevail, with seas 2 ft or less. Winds will begin to shift more 
 NW tonight through Mon as a series of weak cold frontal 
 boundaries approach and sweep eastward across the northern Gulf 
 tonight through Tuesday. Winds across central and southern 
 portions will increase to 10-15 kt during this time with seas 
 building 2-3 ft.
 A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters W of Baja 
 California producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off the 
 coast of the Baja California peninsula, and light to gentle NW 
 to W winds over the remainder of the open waters off the coast 
 of Mexico. Seas are generally in the 5-7 ft range across the 
 entire area in a mix of NW and cross equatorial SW swell. High 
 pressure well NW of the region will build over the next few 
 days. This will tighten the pressure gradient across the 
 offshore waters to support fresh to locally strong NW to N winds
 across the waters off Baja California tonight through Tue night,
 with seas building into the 6 to 8 ft range. 
 Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse 
 across the Tehuantepec region late tonight into early Monday 
 morning, with seas of 7 to 8 ft. 
 OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
 WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
 Please see the Special Features section for more information 
 about the Central American Gyre, which will continue to bring 
 locally heavy rains to parts of Central America and the adjacent
 offshore waters through at least mid week.
 Gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail S of the monsoon 
 trough, with seas in the 4-7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh 
 winds, and seas in the 5-6 ft range prevail N of the monsoon 
 trough. Low pres embedded within the broad gyre will meander 
 offshore the coast of Nicaragua the next couple of days. The 
 monsoon trough will lift northward through the early part of the 
 week, with southerly monsoon flow strengthening, potentially to 
 20-25 kt by Tue. Seas will build to 8-12 ft by mid week in this 
 enhanced monsoon flow.
 REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 
 High pressure of 1025 mb centered NW of the area near 34N139W 
 extends a ridge SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The 
 pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the 
 vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds 
 across much of the area N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Moderate to 
 fresh winds will continue to prevail over this area the next 
 several days.
 SW cross equatorial swell will dominate the forecast waters S of 
 10N and W of 95W for the next few days, with new swell arriving 
 late Tue. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the forecast 
 waters S of 12N between 85W and 112W by Tue.  
 $$
 GR […]
    
				
    
			
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