Pacific Discussion

    
            
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						NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
					
				
				
    
					
						by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on June 24, 2018 at 4:19 PM
					
					
    000
 AXPZ20 KNHC 241619
 TWDEP 
 Tropical Weather Discussion
 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
 1605 UTC Sun Jun 24 2018
 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
 the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
 based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
 meteorological analysis.
 Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
 1500 UTC. 
 ...SPECIAL FEATURES...
 At 1500 UTC newly upgraded Tropical Storm Daniel was located 
 near 16.0N 115.9W or about 535 nm southwest of the southern tip 
 of Baja California, moving north at 9 kt. The minimum central 
 pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained winds are now 35 kt with 
 gusts to 45 kt. Numerous strong convection is seen in satellite 
 imagery occurring in bands within 90 nm across the SE 
 semicircle, while scattered moderate to strong convection is 
 seen within 120 nm across the SE and 75 nm across the NW 
 semicircles. Daniel is expected to remain well offshore as it 
 continues moving northward today then bends more toward the NW 
 this evening through Tue. There is opportunity for Daniel to 
 strengthen slightly through Mon morning before it begins to move 
 over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, which in 
 induce a gradual weakening trend. The cyclone will likely became 
 a remnant low by the middle of the week. See the NHC 
 Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMEP5/ WTPZ35 KNHC 
 for further details.
 ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
 The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W TO 10.5N87W TO 10N95W to 
 low pressure near 15.5N105W 1010 mb to 15N108W, then resumes 
 near 12N118W to 08N124W. The ITCZ extends from 08N124W and 
 continues to 09N132W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG 
 CONVECTION N OF 04N BETWEEN 78W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
 STRONG CONVECTION FROM 05.5N TO 12N BETWEEN 92W AND 103W...FROM 
 12N TO 19N BETWEEN 96W AND 110W...FROM 06N TO 12N BETWEEN 117W 
 AND 123W.
 ...DISCUSSION...
 OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
 Light and variable winds, generally 10 kt or less, prevail 
 across the offshore waters west of Baja California this morning, 
 due to a low level trough along about 118W drifting westward and 
 away from the coast. Morning observations show strong winds of 
 10-15 kt blowing cyclonically around Cabo San Lucas and the 
 southern tip of the peninsula. Winds are expected to remain 
 variable 10 kt or less today and then will become from the NW 
 increasing to a max of 15 kt in the afternoon along the coasts 
 due developing sea breezes. Gentle to moderate NW winds are then 
 expected to develop over the next few days as the low level 
 trough weakens and shifts farther NW. Southerly winds inside the 
 northern Gulf of California are estimated at 15-20 kt north of 
 29N, while light to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas in the 
 region of strongest winds are up to 6 ft while 2-3 ft seas are 
 south of 29N. Winds and seas will subside slightly late this 
 afternoon and tonight, before a weak pressure pattern and 
 variable winds prevail Mon through Wed.   
 Further south, long period cross-equatorial SW swell is peaking 
 across the regional waters this morning from central Baja 
 California to Central America. Seas of 5 to near 8 ft prevail 
 from the mouth of the Gulf of California to Tehuantepec and will 
 build to 7-8 ft by midday and continue through the afternoon, 
 before slowly subsiding tonight through Mon.   
 OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
 WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 
 The monsoon trough will meander between 09N and 13N the next 
 several days. Light to gentle winds will prevail north of the 
 monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate S to SW winds expected 
 south of the trough axis. Long period cross-equatorial SW swell 
 is peaking across the waters this morning, producing seas of 7-9 
 ft, and will begin gradually subside later today through Mon.
 A tropical wave across Central America along about 92W will 
 continue a westward track through Wed maintaining active 
 convection in the region during this time.
 REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 
 High pressure well northwest of the area extends a ridge SE to 
 near 126W. To the S and SW of the ridge to just N of the ITCZ, 
 moderate NE to E winds prevail with seas generally ranging 
 between 5-7 ft. The high pressure center is forecast to shift NW 
 and reorganize, while the weak trough offshore of Baja 
 California drifts west to near 120W through Mon. This will 
 gradually freshen winds N of 25N and to the west of 125W, 
 producing NE winds of 15-25 kt, and building seas of 7-10 ft 
 across the northern waters.
 Typical northerly swell generated offshore of California is 
 propagating into the northern waters today, and has built seas 
 modestly to 9 ft north of 27N between 121W and 132W. The cross-
 equatorial southerly swell is also moving through the tropical 
 waters south of 20N and west of 120W and will maintain seas 5-7 
 ft there through Mon.
 A 1010 mb low pressure is analyzed near 15.5N105W, and 
 generating scattered moderate to strong convection within 180 nm 
 southeast of the center. Global models indicate that this low 
 will linger across this area through at least Mon and continue 
 to generate active convection. 
 $$
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