Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on February 23, 2024 at 10:07 PM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 232207 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure builds behind a cold front currently moving across the northern Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event, with winds forecast to reach gale-force tonight through early Sun morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into Mon. NW Pacific Gale Warning: A 1002 mb gale-force low near 34N133W is producing fresh to strong WNW winds and seas to 15 ft in the northwest waters of the eastern Pacific. The low will continue to strengthen just north of our area and then drift southward into the NW waters during the weekend. Gales with this low are forecast over the NW waters late Sat through Sun morning. Additionally, very large swell generated from this low will propagate southward with the low and continue to impact the western and central subtropical waters. Seas greater than 12 ft associated with this swell will impact much of the waters north of 20N and west of 130W through late Sun night. Seas will peak near 23 ft Sat night. Conditions will improve Mon as the low weakens and moves north of the area. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The equatorial trough extends from 08N83W to 04N95W to 03N111W. The ITCZ stretches from 03N111W to 04N117W. A surface trough is analyzed along 121W, from 00N to 08N. The ITCZ then continues from 04N126W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 11N between 96W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak subtropical ridge prevail over the E Pacific subtropical waters and extends to the Baja California Peninsula, thus supporting light to gentle NNW winds along the offshore waters of Baja California as well as the S and SW Mexican offshores. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. A surface trough over W Mexico tightens the pressure gradient in the Gulf of California and supports moderate to fresh NW winds extending to Jalisco offshore waters and 3-5 ft seas, higher at the entrance of the gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will tighten over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight as high pressure builds behind a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This will usher in the next gap wind event, with winds forecast to reach gale force tonight through early Sun morning. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sat night. Winds and seas in the Tehuantepec region will then diminish Sun into Mon. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, winds should generally remain moderate or weaker for the next several days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR Moderate NE winds are ongoing in both the Gulf of Papagayo and in the Gulf of Panama with 5-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate easterly winds across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo will strengthen to near gale-force Sat night through early next week. Seas will build to 9 ft during the strongest winds. Moderate N to NE winds in the Gulf of Panama will reach strong speeds Sat night and continue for the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section above for information about the Gale Warning in the far NW waters. Weak surface ridging dominates most of the subtropical waters in the eastern Pacific. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 110W. Seas in these waters are 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast aside from Gale Warning area, fresh to occasional strong trade winds north of the ITCZ will will diminish to mainly moderate by late today. Areal coverage of seas greater than 8 ft will gradually decay over the next couple of days. $$ Ramos