Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on November 2, 2024 at 3:05 AM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020305 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Tropical Depression Thirteen-E: Tropical Depression Thirteen-E is centered near 11.1N 129.0W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 125W and 137W, with seas to 10 ft. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. This system will continue moving W through early next week and dissipate by late Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Thirteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W, from 04N northward into Oaxaca, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 111W, from 03N to 15N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 108W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 12N125W. Aside from the convection described above with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is occurring within 120 nm on either side of the trough between 96W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds are occurring offshore of Baja California Norte surrounding a trough that extends from 28N117W westward to 26N134W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show fresh NW winds offshore of Jalisco and Michoacan associated with a decaying trough. Elsewhere, fresh to strong N winds and seas to 7 ft are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as the pressure gradient tightens between troughing over the Bay of Campeche, a passing tropical wave and the monsoon trough to the south. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NW winds will continue north of Cabo San Lazaro through Sat, with moderate winds spreading farther south through most of the offshore waters of Baja California into Sun. An increasing NW swell will continue to promote rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte tonight, with rough seas reaching Baja California Sur early on Sat. Fresh to strong N gap winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat. A stronger cold front will move through the northern waters Sat night through Sun, with fresh NW winds developing offshore of Baja California Norte early on Sun. Strong NW winds will be possible north of Punta Eugenia by Sun afternoon. The front will generate a surge in seas across the Baja Norte waters Sun afternoon through Sun night, with seas across Baja Norte peaking at 12 to 14 ft. Fresh to strong W gap winds will develop across north and central portions of the Gulf of California ahead of the front Sat afternoon through Sun evening, then become fresh to strong N winds behind the front Mon through early Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate to fresh SW to W winds south of the monsoon trough, generally north of 02N and east of 92W. Seas in this region are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted offshore of Ecuador. To the north of the trough, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW to W winds will continue south of 10N through at least Mon as broad low pressure develops across the southwestern Caribbean. Increasing seas associated with these winds will occur across the waters south of 10N through Sun and combine with cross equatorial swell leading to seas to 6 to 9 ft through Mon night. Seas will slowly subside through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Refer to the Special Features section for information regarding Tropical Depression Thirteen-E. A 1027 mb high is located NW of the region near 34N153W, and ridging prevails across much of the East Pacific forecast waters north of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 are occurring near a trough currently W of our area. Moderate NE to N winds are noted along the periphery of the ridge, generally north of 20N and west of the Mexico Offshore Zones. A northerly swell associated with a former cold front over Baja California Norte is supporting rough seas north of 22N. Elsewhere, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough and east of 100W. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail to the west of 100W south of the trough. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Thirteen-E will move to 11.1N 129.9W Sat morning, 11.1N 131.1W Sat evening, 11.2N 132.4W Sun morning, 11.3N 133.9W Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to 11.3N 135.4W Mon morning, and 11.3N 136.8W Mon evening. Thirteen-E will dissipate late Tue. The northerly swell associated with the former front will progress southward through this weekend, with rough seas expected north of 20N by early Sat, and north of 12N by early Sun. Fresh to strong NE winds will continue north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W into Sat morning. A stronger cold front will move through the northern waters Sat night into Sun, leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds north of 20N into early next week. Reinforcing northerly swell will move into the area waters Sun behind the front and continue through early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Afterward, some slow development is possible while the system drifts slowly east- northeastward. $$ ERA