Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on March 21, 2019 at 4:05 PM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 211605 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Mar 21 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse to minimal gale-force tonight, from 00Z until 1200 UTC. The sea heights will reach 12 feet tonight, during the period of fastest wind speeds. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish rapidly on Friday night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZPN03 KNHC/HSFEP2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from 05N87W to 05N100W to 03N113W beyond 03N140W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 90 nm to the north of the ITCZ and within 30 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 112W and 116W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 240 nm to the north of the surface trough between 83W and 86W, within 30 nm to the north and within 120 nm to the south of the surface trough and the ITCZ, between 85W and 100W, and within 240 nm to the north of the ITCZ from 133W westward. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details about the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. Gulf of California: Fairly benign marine conditions will prevail through this weekend, with seas 3 feet or less. Moderate to occasionally fresh NW winds will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. NW swell of 8 feet to 9 feet, that is propagating into Baja California Norte now, will continue to move southward along the rest of the coast of the Baja Peninsula during the rest of today. Another episode of large NW swell will reach the forecast area during the weekend. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: The winds will pulse to strong, starting during the late night and early morning hours and it will continue into the afternoon, across the Gulf of Papagayo, from tonight through Monday night. Strong to near gale-force winds are forecast for Friday and Friday night. The sea heights will peak around 9 feet during the period of the fastest wind speeds. Gulf of Panama: Fresh northerly winds will pulse to strong, occasionally at night, in the Gulf of Panama through Saturday night. The peak sea heights will reach 8 feet during the period of the fastest wind speeds. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, 4-6 ft seas in mixed swell will persist, building to 5-7 ft during the upcoming weekend with the arrival of both long period SW and NW swell. Light to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas will prevail elsewhere during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell associated with a cold front from 31N113W to 24N116W to 20N126W has increased seas to 11-12 ft near 15N130W. This swell will continue to propagate SE across the waters while subsiding the next couple of days. By this afternoon, seas 8 ft or greater will cover most of the area W of 110W. A reinforcing set of NW swell will arrive later today from another cold front. Seas associated with the reinforcing swell will peak near 15 ft over the NW waters on Fri night. A third cold front will arrive early Sun, ushering in yet another set of large NW swell to the NW waters. $$ mt […]

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