Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by (nhcwebmaster) on February 19, 2018 at 4:00 AM

    000 AXPZ20 KNHC 190400 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 306 UTC Mon Feb 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of California GALE WARNING: Strong to near gale force SW-W winds, with seas to near 8 ft, will develop across the waters from 29N to 30.5N on Mon evening ahead of a cold front that will pass E across the far northern gulf waters. Gale force northerly winds are forecast NW of the front on Mon evening and Mon night. Seas will build to 10 ft in the longer fetch waters N of 30N. The front will move E of the area on Tue, with marine conditions quickly improving thereafter. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica at 10N85W to 06N90W to 05N102W where scatterometer winds indicate a transition to an ITCZ, that continues W to 05N102W to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A gentle variable breeze continues around a weak N to S orientated trough analyzed from 32.5N115W to 26N120W. A cold front will sweep quickly E across the discussion area N of 28N Mon eroding the trough. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will result in a strong NW breeze spreading SE across the waters W of the Baja Norte on Mon into early Mon night, accompanied by NW swell building seas to 8 to 14 ft. The pressure gradient will relax on Tue with seas subsiding to less than 8 ft on Wed night. Gulf of Tehuantepec: High pressure across the Gulf of Mexico will support fresh to strong northerly surges through the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with these strong northerly winds resuming on Thu evening. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong NE winds will continue to pulse through and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through this week, with seas building to 9 ft as downstream as 10N91W. Gulf of Panama: Fresh to locally strong nocturnal N winds are expected across the western Gulf of Panama tonight with these conditions extending as far S as 05N80W. Mostly fresh nocturnal drainage flow is forecast through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 09N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 09N. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge covers the discussion waters N of the ITCZ and W of 120W, with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixing swell. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 18N between 123W and 127W. The pressure gradient will tighten tonight, with fresh to strong trades developing across the tropical waters W of 125W, while fresh to strong N winds will spread S across the northern waters in the wake of a cold front sweeping E across the Baja Peninsula. Conditions will improve briefly across the sub- tropics on Thu, the deteriorate again behind another cold front on Fri. $$ Formosa […]