- NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on October 23, 2019 at 3:57 PM000 AXPZ20 KNHC 231557 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 23 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W north of 06N, moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 90W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 05N to 18N, moving west around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated with it. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N86W to 11N90W to 10N100W to 11N105W to 12N118W to 10N128W. The ITCZ begins near 10N128W and continues to 10N135W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 08N E of 83W, from 07N to 10N between 99W and 113W, and from 10N to 15N between 115W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging west of Baja California will continue to support a light to gentle breeze through Mon with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range. Gulf of California: Gentle to moderate winds along the gulf are expected to prevail through Thu. Strong high pressure is expected to build over the Great Basin Thu into Fri, and the associated pressure gradient will strengthen the winds over the northern and central Gulf to fresh to strong with seas to 8 ft N of 29N. Winds and seas will diminish by early Sat. Gulf of Tehuantepec: Strong to near gale force northerly gap winds are ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas in the 8-9 ft range. This gap wind event is expected to end early on Thu. A stronger gap wind event is forecast to start late Fri night as a strong cold front moves across the western Gulf of Mexico. Gale conditions are likely early on Sat through Sat night as a strong north-south pressure gradient sets up across the region. Seas are expected to build to 12-13 ft with this event on Sat. Afterwards, winds and seas will gradually diminish through Sun. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate SW winds with 4-6 ft seas prevail south of the monsoon trough across the offshore waters of Central America, Colombia, and Ecuador. Little change is expected through the weekend. A set of long period SW swell will move northward into the region today, but seas are expected to remain less than 8 ft across the offshore waters. Looking ahead, seas will build to 8 ft in mixed swell this weekend well offshore of Guatemala and El Salvador. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge prevails across the northern waters N of 20N W of 120W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are N of 25N W of 125W with seas of 8 to 10 ft in NE swell. Farther south, between the ridge and the ITCZ, moderate NE to E winds dominate the region with seas to 9 ft W of 137W. The ridge, centered well north of the region, will remain nearly stationary and gradually weaken through Thu, allowing winds to diminish and seas to subside in the northern waters. Mixed, SW and NW swell is resulting in 8 ft seas south of the Equator and west of 104W. Seas in this region are expected to subside by Thu. A surge in the monsoon flow, combined with southerly swell, could produce another area of 8 ft seas from 02N to 07N between 100W and 107W Thu night. $$ Ramos