Pacific Discussion

  • NHC East Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion
    by nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov (nhcwebmaster) on July 4, 2020 at 3:30 AM

    168 AXPZ20 KNHC 040330 TWDEP Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 4 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 82W/83W north of 03N into Central America. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 82W and 88W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 96W north of 03N into southern Mexico. It is moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 11N between 94W and 98W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 104W south of 18N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N to 13N between 104W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 08N85W to 1009 mb low pressure near 10N92W to 13N104W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N109W to 10N131W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 15N between 111W and 117W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occuring from 08N to 13N between 117W and 123W, and from 07N to 12N between 131W and 139W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore waters west of Baja California, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Light westerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California. A ridge will dominate the waters west of Baja California through the weekend, producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds. Northerly swell is forecast to reach the waters north of Punta Eugenia, and increase seas west of northern Baja California early next week. A meandering surface trough is across the Gulf of California. Gentle southerly winds will prevail over the Gulf of California through the weekend, then increase to 15-20 kt in the northern Gulf early next week as the gradient tightens across NW Mexico. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south- southwest of Manzanillo Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible through early next week as it moves west-northwest, well south of southern Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation. A second low pressure area is forecast to form south of southern Mexico in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for development, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward, well south of the coast of southern Mexico. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region this weekend, with seas building to 7-8 ft in a mix of northerly wind waves and SW swell. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh SW to W winds will prevail over the waters S of 10N this weekend. Long period SW swell will gradually subside across the region through Mon. An area of low pressure is forecast to form west of Central America in a couple of days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A fairly strong ridge will dominate the northern forecast waters the next several days. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the monsoon trough will support moderate to fresh trade winds across tropical waters, roughly from 10N to 20N west of 120W. Long period cross-equatorial S to SW swell across most of the tropical east Pacific Ocean will gradually subide the next couple of days, with sea heights expected to be 5 to 7 ft. $$ Mundell