Current Mesoscale Discussions
Short-term SPC forecast discussions highlighting areas of developing or ongoing hazardous weather across the United States.
Active Mesoscale Discussions
Purple polygons show the areas covered by currently active SPC discussions.
SPC Discussion Details
Current products are listed with affected areas, concern, timing, graphics and the full technical discussion when available.
Mesoscale Discussion 2428
Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 020901Z - 021100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
The severe threat is waning across the Texas Panhandle as thunderstorms become displaced behind a surface cold pool. Additional watch issuance will not be needed.
Full SPC Discussion
Mesoscale Discussion 2428
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0301 AM CST Mon Nov 02 2026
Areas affected...Parts of the Texas Panhandle
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 020901Z - 021100Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat is waning across the Texas Panhandle as
thunderstorms become displaced behind a surface cold pool.
Additional watch issuance will not be needed.
DISCUSSION...Overall convective intensity has been waning over the
past hour per MRMS echo tops and GOES IR imagery. Although
occasional updraft pulses continue to be noted, convection
along/within the primary band appears to be elevated and displaced
behind the surface cold pool. Consequently, the potential for robust
surface-based convection is quickly diminishing despite some
lingering MUCAPE and strong deep-layer wind shear.
A few shallow convective towers are noted along the NM/TX state line
to the west of Lubbock, TX. Recent guidance, notably the 06z HRRR,
suggests that this activity could intensify as it moves east across
a plume of 1000-1500 MUCAPE. However, given the anemic radar and
satellite presentation of the convection so far, coupled with
lingering inhibition downstream, it appears unlikely that this
activity poses a substantial severe threat through the early morning
hours.
..Moore.. 11/02/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...
LAT...LON 34390227 35020141 35790083 35920052 35890033 35660021
35200030 34760055 34530081 34370105 34260132 34160159
34150179 34150203 34190216 34390227
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
What Is a Mesoscale Discussion?
SPC Mesoscale Discussions explain short-term hazardous-weather evolution, often emphasizing the next one to three hours.
Many severe-weather MDs discuss whether a Tornado or Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed.
Forecasters describe instability, shear, forcing and observed storm trends.
MDs focus on weather evolving faster and more locally than the broader convective outlook.
SPC can also issue MDs for mesoscale winter-weather hazards such as heavy snow or freezing rain.
Severe Weather Tools
Use the discussion alongside the current outlook, mesoscale environment and active ENC alerts.
National and Eastern NC Day 1–3 severe-weather outlooks.
Open →AnalysisEast-Central MesoanalysisCurrent thermodynamic, shear and composite severe-weather fields.
Open →AlertsENC AdvisoriesActive watches, warnings and advisories for Eastern North Carolina.
Open →SPCOfficial Mesoscale DiscussionsSPC current MD page and official product graphics.
Open source ↗