97L Update
This morning there was little change in Invest 97L. The system is moving to the west-northwest at 20 mph. Wind speeds are estimated around 30 mph. 97L is still a very broad system but still lacks a center of circulation. Adding to that, the convection is widely scattered and not concentrated in just one area. This leads me to believe that there is still some time that has to pass before it becomes more organized.
The situation will change in the coming days. 97L is forecast to become a tropical cyclone as it approaches the Windward Islands where it should remain on a WNW track into the eastern and southern Caribbean.
So what do we know about this system so far:
-This system will be developing over the coming days.
-The system will slow down as it moves through the southern Caribbean.
-A strong ridge to the north of the system steering it WNW over the next few days.
What we don’t know:
-How strong will the system get?
-Will the low pressure forecast to move into the eastern CONUS create a strong enough weakness in the ridge to bring the system more northward
-Where will the system go?
So as you can see given the unknowns that it would be very speculative to give an semi-accurate forecast over a week out. What needs to happen now if you are along the east coast, Florida, or Gulf Coast, pay attention over the coming days for updates regarding this system. Right now it is unsure that this system will make landfall over the US but be ready to be prepared for any situation at this point.
I will continue to update as needed for this system.