Hurricane Isaias Monday Evening Update

As Isaias works its way through ENC, we will see the highest wind gusts on the right side of the center of the storm. Image of wind gusts (derived from the HRRR forecast model) are forecast max wind gusts over the next 18 hours compared to the forecast track displays that well. Tropical storm force winds will extend across the entire area as well through the overnight hours. For tonight’s timeline: Tropical storm force winds will make landfall near the NC/SC border around 10pm-12am with the center making landfall shortly after that. By 5:00am the center of the storm will be just west of Greenville, NC. The center will then cross the NC/VA border around 7am-8am. The strongest winds are forecast to be out of the area by 10am-12pm. This timeline may change some over the next couple of hours but this is what I think will play out.
HRRR forecast model max winds gusts. Values are model derived and are subject to errors in forecast.


The storm could strengthen to a category one hurricane prior to landfall but given the dynamics at play, there isn’t much difference between a 75 mph hurricane and a 70 mph tropical storm so don’t take it any less serious just because of the name. Same results either way.
I do expect a tornado watch to be issued for the overnight hours so make sure you have a way to receive weather alerts overnight in the event a tornado warning is issued for your area.

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