Tropical Storm Isaias Sunday Afternoon Update
Tropical Storm Isaias is continues to be a strong tropical storm with winds at around 65 mph. Dry air and wind shear continue to limit the storm’s ability to strengthen, despite being over the warmer waters of the Gulf Stream. The storm is currently in an environment with weak steering currents and has slowed to only 8 mph.
The storm will be moving to the north-northwest over the next couple of hours bringing its track even closer to the Florida coast. As the trough moves eastward over the central US, it will begin to turn the storm more northward and increase the forward speed on Monday. We don’t expect any strengthening during this time-frame with shear and dry air continuing to be a factor. However, even though it won’t increase in strength, the upper-levels will become favorable to maintain the storm at it’s current strength rather than the expected weakening in a forecast such as this. As the trough picks up the storm, it will be positioned in the right entrance region of the jet aloft which will assist with upward motion in the storm.
As a result, we would see a landfall along the eastern coast of South Carolina and a north-northwestward track across Eastern North Carolina as a strong tropical storm. If the current forecast holds, this will place many of the inland counties in the right front quadrant of the storm which will bring strong, damaging winds and very heavy rainfall. The storm is forecast to pull away from the area by late Tuesday.
Tropical storm force winds will be felt well inland especially along and to the right side of the center of the storm. As a result, tropical storm watches have been issued for these areas. These areas will likely see the tropical storm watches upgraded to tropical storm warnings in the next 24 hours as the storm moves our way.
Heavy rain will also accompany this storm with areas in the coastal region seeing rainfall totals around 0.50″-1.00″ and inland regions close to the center of the storm around 2.00″-4.00″ with locally higher amount possible. As it stands now, river flooding really won’t be much of an issue this time around.
Even though the center of the storm is forecast to be inland before reaching our coast, storm surge will continue to be a threat to coastal sections. For more detailed information visit NWS.
And as usual with land falling tropical systems, there is an increased risk of isolated tornadoes across the entire area so make sure you can receive alerts through NOAA weather radio or other media outlets that send out alerts as well (this website WILL NOT be sending out weather alerts live so do not expect them here).
Of course the forecast will be fine-tuned over the next day or two and updates will be posted with any changes to the forecast.