Rain Filled Tuesday
Update: As of noon Tuesday, there are no changes needed for today’s forecast. Surface low has form further south than previously forecast though the track and impacts remain unchanged. Forecast high temperatures still on track to meet the previous forecast target.
Good morning ENC! Most areas saw rain last night though the heavy rainfall was mainly contained over the southern counties which saw 0.30″-0.50″ of rain while northern counties saw just a trace. I expect more rain in the forecast today with all areas seeing rain at some point.
The system that will be bringing the rain today has moved northeastward overnight and that motion will continue through the rest of the day. Descent lift will still accompany the system allowing for periods of heavy rain over the Coastal Plains with the heaviest amounts close to the coast.
With the passage of this system, I expect it to add an additional inch of rain to the area.
Temperature forecast for today is on track to meet my previous forecast target. The NAM and GFS have moved slightly in terms of how much cold air will be wedged east of the mountains.
I have included the 4:00 PM forecast for Tuesday (ignore the time stamp in the image). As you can see, this northerly wind component over the mid-Atlantic will bring in colder temperatures today. The amount of cold air it brings has an impact on temperatures today. Right now we see a somewhat sharp gradient roughly along highway 17. Stronger cold air advection would result in the temperature gradient to be pushed a little further to the east allowing temperatures inland, west of the gradient, to see colder temperatures today. If the CAA is weak, inland areas would then be on the eastern side of the gradient and warmer. Between the NAM and GFS, there is only a slight difference in output while the Euro is a little warmer.
For the purpose of this forecast, I will lean more towards a warmer forecast for Wilson eastward though with a possible eastward shift in colder temperatures. This would put high temperatures across the area in the mid to upper 50s today and dropping down to the lower 40s tonight.
As the low pressure moves northeastward west of the mountains, we will begin to see a Miller Type-B evolution of this system. An area of low pressure will for just off the NC coast and then move northeastward away from the area. This will have a minimal impact of the forecast thus doesn’t really warrant a change.
I hope everyone has a great day and I should be back online later today where I will evaluate this weekend’s cold weather forecast.