Marie Hits Cat 5 Status, Cristobal Forecast To Miss U.S.

Written by on August 24, 2014 in Local Forecast Discussion, Tropics
Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Visible satellite image of Tropical Storm Cristobal.

Tropical Storm Cristobal has become more organized with convection starting to fire on the western side of the circulation. Cristobal is currently moving to the north in response to the upper trough off the eastern CONUS and this motion is expected over the next 48 hours. After 48 hours, the storm will accelerate quickly to the northeast away from the United States. Unless something unusual happens over the next couple of days, this storm should not pose a threat to the mainland (though not completely 100% guarantee).

 

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Cristobal as of 7:00 PM EDT.

Forecast track for Tropical Storm Cristobal as of 7:00 PM EDT.

Impact to ENC: Even though Tropical Storm Cristobal will miss the east coast by several hundred miles, the effects it will have on our early week weather will be noticeable. As Cristobal rides the trough northward then northeasward, a ridge will build to the NW and N of the region. The counter clockwise circulation around the storm and the clockwise circulation around the ridge will wedge cooler temperatures from the north and northeast (similar to cold air damming scenarios in the winter) keeping temperatures across ENC below average. Most areas will see high temperatures only make it into the mid 80s for Monday and Tuesday. The flow from the northeast will weaken and high temperatures will slowly increase throughout the week with some areas reaching the lower 90s by the weekend as the ridge pushes offshore. Conditions should remain cooler and dry during the week with the next opportunity for rain next weekend.

Northeasterly winds will help keep high temperatures low for Monday.

Northeasterly winds will help keep high temperatures low for Monday.

Northeasterly winds will still be in place on Tuesday to keep highs in the mid-to-upper 80s across the region.

Northeasterly winds will still be in place on Tuesday to keep highs in the mid-to-upper 80s across the region.

Switching to the eastern Pacific this afternoon, we have another major hurricane for the 2014 hurricane season. Major Hurricane Marie will join the list with 3 other storms that have become a major hurricane.

IR satellite image of Major Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

IR satellite image of Major Hurricane Marie in the eastern Pacific Ocean.

Marie is currently moving to the northwest and this track is expected to continue over the next several days. The intensity forecast calls for Marie to be a major hurricane over the next 48 hours before weakening to a hurricane. The hurricane is forecast to weaken even further to a tropical storm by hour 72 which will be around the same time it becomes a post-tropical storm. This hurricane poses no risk to land at this time.

IR satellite image of Invest 97L in the central Atlantic Ocean.

IR satellite image of Invest 97L in the central Atlantic Ocean.

We should also turn our attention to the central Atlantic Ocean where another tropical wave has caught the eye of the National Hurricane Center. This cluster of showers and storms will move westward over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions are unfavorable for development in the short-term but could become more favorable later this week.

Since this is early in a potential life cycle of the invest most forecast models haven’t produced anything with it or by nature are handling the tropical wave poorly as it relates to how it handles organized tropical cyclones. As such I caution that the forecast model solutions below are low confidence and mainly used for guidance only.

Early forecast model solutions for Invest 97L. (Subject to errors)

Early forecast model solutions for Invest 97L. (Subject to errors)

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