Scattered Showers and Storms Monday

Written by on August 17, 2014 in Local Forecast Discussion
Surface analysis as of 4:45 PM EDT.

Surface analysis as of 4:45 PM EDT.

Some showers have popped up over the coastal sections of ENC this afternoon but should remain isolated in coverage and will diminish right after sunset.

A stalled surface front is just to the north of our area associated with a long-wave trough over the Great Lakes and northeast region this afternoon. A series of short-wave troughs will rotate through the trough Monday increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms from 30% to over 50%. Forecast soundings shows a nearly unidirectional flow from the WSW during the day tomorrow resulting in higher temperatures and increased humidity.

Mid-level short-wave trough will begin to approach the region on Monday afternoon from the WSW.

Mid-level short-wave trough will begin to approach the region on Monday afternoon from the WSW.

Ahead of the shortwave trough, the atmosphere will become unstable with CAPE values greater than 1,500 J/kg with some areas along the coast seeing greater than 2,000 J/kg. Lifted indices values near -4 per forecast soundings support scattered convection with some potentially strong storms capable of strong winds and some small hail. Given the lack of directional shear over the area, tornadoes will not be an issue with this event. Precipital water values over 2″ indicates heavy rain with these storms which could total 0.10″ – 0.25″ across the area.

Forecast CAPE values for Monday afternoon.

Forecast CAPE values for Monday afternoon.

There will be a chance of isolated cells of storms across the east with the destabilization of the atmosphere by early afternoon though it’s hard to nail down exact locations. As the short-wave through nears, the surface low over Kentucky will shift eastward over central Virginia. This will result in a forward movement in the surface front southeastward some with a line of showers and storms developing ahead of it. Not sure how far south the front will travel during this time frame but I would expect that the northern half of ENC could see this line pass through Monday night.

NAM forecast reflectivity for Monday evening as a line of storms moves through the northern half of ENC.

NAM forecast reflectivity for Monday evening as a line of storms moves through the northern half of ENC.

Monday afternoon forecast for ENC.

Monday afternoon forecast for ENC.

Risk of showers and storms will persist through the first part of the week with high temperatures reaching the lower 90s again.

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