Active First Week

Update below.

Scattered showers are currently ongoing across the southern half of ENC north of a stationary front SC/GA. This frontal boundary will move northward Monday eventually stalling out over portions of ENC oriented southwest to northeast due to CAD. Rain will continue to fall through Monday before a brief break in the rain Monday night. Tuesday morning as the cold front begins to approach the area, widespread rain will return where we could see an additional 0.50″-1.00″ across portions of the region.

The cold front should clear the area by late Tuesday and continue to push well offshore. Another dry cold front will sweep through the area on Wednesday bringing very cold air in its wake. We will see high temperatures drop from upper 60s Tuesday and Wednesday to low to mid 40s on Thursday and beyond.

The forecast beyond this point becomes very difficult. After a couple of days of monitoring, there still isn’t a consistent solution on the evolution of the next system to affect our location this coming weekend. Run after run on the forecast models shows a dramatically different solution each time. So right now it is hard to define a forecast for Thursday and beyond with any degree of certainty until everything begins to come together which could take a couple of days. As for my seven day forecast, I have temporarily removed precipitation from my forecast from Thursday through Sunday but it could return to my forecast at a later time and I am not forecasting precipitation type at this point in the forecast. At this point anything can happen and I advise to monitor the situation throughout the week for updates relating to this potential weather situation.

I hope over the coming days to have a more detailed overview of the forecast this weekend and will post a discussion when things start falling into place. So keep checking back for more as this situation unfolds.

Update (Sunday night): I am beginning to see a little better picture of the first system later this week. The previously forecast front passing through the area will continue to push south and east Wednesday and Thursday. Mid-level energy interacts with the frontal boundary and a surface low develops well off the coast. Here it looks as though high pressure will suppress the system further south and east away from the east coast. The Euro has the mid-level energy further to the north than the GFS. Still even with this northward position, the trough will not amplify enough for a strong coastal storm and keeps the storm offshore. Moisture would be confined to the immediate coast and precipitation type would be rain.

The CMC is showing a more northern placement of the mid-level energy with the surface low developing off the SC/GA coast then parallel the coast. In this scenario we would see rain primarily along the immediate coast.

Of course this is still several days out and will most likely need to be adjusted. The forecast beyond that system once again remains very difficult and tonight’s model runs do not contribute an increase in confidence. This once will need to be watched this week as well as it appears that this system will have some sort of impact over ENC. As a result of tonight’s runs, I have increased the chance of rain for Sunday and may potentially change Saturday as well but will save that decision until Monday afternoon/evening if needed.