More Rain To Come
Radar picking up on some light precipitation over portions of ENC. Right now reports of rain have been limited both by METAR observation and mPing observations. I can confirm a few drops over Greenville a few minutes ago but didn’t need any windshield wipers. The atmosphere is becoming more saturated and would expect rain coverage to expand from south to north later tonight.
A trough will develop along the coast and then begin to move northward as a warm front Sunday night. Rain chances remain high for both Sunday and Monday until the passage of the front Monday afternoon/evening. We could see a brief break in the rain Monday night and into early Tuesday with temperatures surging into the lower 70s ahead of the approaching cold front.
The cold front will move through the area on Tuesday with more rain expected across the east. Rainfall totals could be between 1-2″ with higher amounts possible in locations.
The cold front clears the area by late Tuesday with all the precipitation moving off the coast at that time. A second dry cold front will push through the area early Wednesday. Temperatures respond accordingly as highs remain in the 40s for the remainder of the week.
That was the easy forecast. Over the past couple of days, I like several others have been keeping an eye on next weekend’s forecast. This one has become very complex and we are no closer to a consensus as to what is exactly going to happen. The front mentioned above stalls well off the east coast Wednesday. Mid-level energy interacts with the front and produce a surface low. There are several pieces to this puzzle that make this a difficult forecast (at least for the time being). This includes: placement of front/surface low, cold air availability (precip typing), trough amplification, moisture availability, and timing. The 00Z GFS is now faster than previous runs and closer to the 12Z Euro run which means if this holds through tomorrow morning’s runs, I will move rain chances in my forecast to Thursday and Friday. I will also adjust Saturday back to dry conditions.
Update (Sunday morning): Major changes to the long range forecast on both the GFS and Euro which have added to the uncertainty with next weekend’s weather. I am going to review all the 12Z runs this afternoon and will update any changes to the forecast. Based on the current runs, I have decided not to change my forecast for next weekend quite yet. I will most likely have to adjust the temperatures on Thursday and Friday down a couple of degrees. The rest of the forecast still good.
Update (noon Sunday): The 12Z GFS resembles the earlier 00Z GFS. The 12Z CMC has the low slower and closer to the coast. This will also have an impact on where the moisture will be concentrated whether it is onshore or offshore. With regards to precipitation type: track closer to the coast will bring in warmer temperatures inland from the Ocean. In the absence of a strong CAD this would indicated greater chance of all rain with any precipitation. The 12Z CMC leans towards this solution. A track further away from the coast keeps the moisture off the coast. This is what the 12Z GFS is indicating. It also shows northern stream energy that could create light precipitation over western and central NC during this time period (appears on both the 00Z and 12Z runs). I will be awaiting the Euro run before issuing a new discussion on this system.
I will try to keep updating as new information becomes available so keep checking back several times a day for the most recent updates about this next week’s storm potential.
