Widespread Rain Across ENC
Moderate rain is now falling over all areas in ENC. Some rainfall totals since midnight have reached 0.43″ and more is on the way. Severe thunderstorm warnings are starting to be issued over the southern sections of ENC.
The Storm Prediction Center has ENC under the slight category for severe storms. Early ongoing rain this morning is helping keep instability limited. Current forecast models have CAPE very limited going forward today but we still have strong shear as well as strong helicity values which still pose a severe risk later today.
The warm front has passed through the area this morning and currently resides near I-95. As the day goes forward, the surface low well to the west will travel northward and the warm front will move northward in response which will allow temperatures to remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. A line of strong to severe storms expands from the central NC/SC state line down to Tallahassee, FL and is moving northeastward ahead of the cold front. Over the past couple of hours, it appears that the line is slowly weakening and potentially breaking up some with the strongest part of the line near the GA/FL border. Since then, the line of storms has reformed and is still on a northeastward track which would bring to ENC later this afternoon. With the above severe parameters factored in, this line has the greatest risk at becoming severe.
Right now no severe watches have been issued but will monitor the situation if anything changes.