Stormy Christmas Eve

Written by on December 23, 2014 in Local Forecast Discussion, Severe Weather

Majority of the area enjoyed dry conditions today despite overcast skies which will give way to unsettled weather tonight and into tomorrow.

The low pressure system over Alabama and Mississippi will lift northward towards the Great Lakes tonight and into Wednesday. This will push the associated cold front eastward across the southeastern CONUS during the next two days. Right now, a warm front is situated south of the area will lift northward this evening and overnight and has already begun spreading moderate to heavy rain across the area. As the warm front continues to push north, I expect all areas to receive rainfall during the overnight hours with locally heavy rain possible.

HRRR model depicting heavy showers and possible storms moving northward through the area overnight. These showers are associated with the warm front lifting northward over the area.

HRRR model depicting heavy showers and possible storms moving northward through the area overnight. These showers are associated with the warm front lifting northward over the area.

This rain should persist for a couple of hours before a lull in the activity during the late morning hours though scattered showers and storms are possible during this time. Once the warm front has passed all of ENC will be in the warm sector of the system. Temperatures will begin to increase later tonight and will continue to climb well into the afternoon where temperatures could approach the 70s.

During the day, we will experience a high shear/low CAPE environment which puts at risk for possible strong to severe storms. Right now the limiting factor is the relatively weak instability which could keep a lid on severe weather if this stays this way though any instability that might occur could lead to development of strong to severe storms. The risks would include strong winds and isolated tornadoes. Even though this is the same system that brought a couple of tornadoes to Louisiana and Mississippi earlier Tuesday, conditions will be different in ENC than it was there today so I don’t expect the threat to be as high.

Areas that are most likely to see severe weather ahead of the next system.

Areas that are most likely to see severe weather ahead of the next system.

Given high precipital water values, we could see heavy rain from this system and rainfall totals could exceed 1.00″ tomorrow with some potential for areas to see upwards to 2.00″.

HRRR model of forecast rainfall totals at 6:00 AM EST Wednesday.

HRRR model of forecast rainfall totals at 6:00 AM EST Wednesday.

The timing of the frontal passage appears to occur late Wednesday night and early Christmas morning. As it stands right now, most precipitation should be out of the area by mid-morning and we should see conditions drying out during the day. High temperatures will be realized during the early morning and will drop as the day progresses.

I will keep updating on the potential severe weather as needed.

hourly-forecastKPGV-Christmas-Forecast

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