Sunday was another cool day for ENC with areas reaching mid to upper 40s this afternoon with some southern sections seeing 50. Most areas remained dry today with the exception of some southern coastal sections which saw light rain on and off through this afternoon. Some of these showers were starting to move northeastward and increasing in coverage at the time of this writing (Sunday evening). I expect the trend of increasing showers over the area as a surface trough off the southeast coast begins to move back northward towards the area. A surface low will develop along this trough and begin to move northeastward along the NC coast overnight and into tomorrow morning.
As the surface low moves northeastward, heavy showers north of the low will overspread the area during the early morning hours and pushing away from the region by lunchtime Monday.
During this time, high pressure to the north will keep surface winds from the north keeping temperatures during the day in the 40s. Depending on the low’s passage, some areas along the coast could see high temperatures reach the low 60s for a brief period.
Mid-level winds (850 mb) will be mainly southerly which will lead to warm air advection at the mid-levels through tonight and into Monday (inversion clearly defined in the forecast soundings at Greenville, NC). This setup will keep skies cloudy throughout the day with areas seeing drizzle during the afternoon, long after the bulk of the precipitation has moved northeastward away from the area.
These conditions will continue through the afternoon hours on Monday and into Monday night.
Rain chances will increase Tuesday evening as a warm front from the next system over the central Plains moves northward over ENC. Temperatures Tuesday night will rise with the frontal passage as ENC enters the warm sector. We will see a persistent rain as southwesterly flow will pull in a lot of moisture up the east coast. Mid to upper-level winds will increase ahead of the upper-level trough digging through the southeast states. This combined with high shear, low CAPE, and warm, moist air could result in a strong to severe storm across the east during the day Wednesday. Right now the biggest risks associated with this type of event would be small hail, gusty winds, and isolated tornadoes. Monitoring of the situation over the next day or two will be necessary.
Temperatures on Wednesday will reach near 70 inland as a result of the warm sector southwesterly flow.
The cold front should pass through the area Wednesday night and Thursday morning with the possibility of some lingering showers early in the morning but expect conditions to dry out fast as the front pulls away and high pressure builds into the region. Temperatures Thursday will start high and drop during the day as cold air in the wake of the front enters the area.
Total forecast rainfall for this event could reach 1-2″ across ENC with southern sections seeing the most rain.
I will update every day this week with special updates for severe weather as needed.