Unsettled Weather Monday Night & Tuesday
As of 6:45PM, light rain was falling over the southern portions of ENC. This area of showers will continue to move northeastward over the next couple of hours. Despite overcast skies, mid-levels between 700-850mb remain dry but over the next couple of hours, we can expect to see moistening at that layer.
Dry mid-levels this evening.
The main action starts to move in overnight as heavy rain will begin to spread the region. An upper-level shortwave will slowly move in to the region where it will be able to tap into abundant moisture from the southeasterly flow off the ENC coast. A warm front associated with the surface low moving eastward will slowly move northward across the area during the day on Tuesday. Heavy rain will be the result which will last several hours. This will most likely lead to flooding in flood proned areas.
As the warm front moves northward during the day, severe thunderstorms are possible with increasing instability in the warm sector during the day. The main threat with these storms will be strong, damaging winds and an isolated tornado is possible.
Heavy amounts of rain will result from this system. Models continue to indicate strong lift as well as significant moisture coming in from the Atlantic Ocean leading to heavy rainfall rates. High resolution models have total storm totals in the 1-2″ range with some localized totals in excess of 2″.
Winds will also be an impact with this system which has already prompted Wind Advisories and Coastal Flood Advisories.
Advisories as of 7:00 PM Monday (this graphic will not change so make sure you view up-to-date advisories from the NWS).
NAM forecast wind gusts across ENC.
Temperatures on Tuesday are complicated due to rainy conditions but would expect most inland areas near 70 while coastal sections seeing slightly warmer temperatures mostly in the mid 70s.
I will continue to update as things unfold.