Heavy Rain in the Forecast
The start of our work week will bring very heavy rain to all of ENC. Tonight conditions will remain quiet while clouds begin to overspread the region ahead of an upper low currently pushing through the Gulf States. Conditions will remain dry overnight with high pressure situated to our north. The high is forecast to push eastward off the Northeastern Coast. At the same time, the low will push eastward very slowly and by early afternoon on Monday we will begin to see the rain move into our area from southwest to north east.
NAM reflectivity for Monday afternoon.
As the low continues to push eastward over North and South Carolina the rain will overspread the region with all locations seeing rain by early evening.
Rain will overspread the entire region by late evening and through the overnight hours.
The rain will be heavy at times as strong lift and abundant moisture will all be present Monday night and into Tuesday.
Rain begins to move out of the area from southwest to northeast as the low pressure departs the area to the northeast.As the upper-level low (green) weakens into an upper-level trough another upper-level trough (blue) will shift southeastward and absorb the weakened system off the Northeast Coast by Wednesday. By this time the moisture should have pushed offshore.
500mb forecast for Tuesday night-Wednesday morning.
Rainfall on Tuesday will be heavy and forecast totals will range anywhere from 1.00″-2.00″ across the area with sections potentially seeing rainfall totals reach 3.00″. There is a slight difference about this forecast among the models with the ECMWF having the highest totals to the NAM with the lowest. The GFS and CMC lie between these two extremes. My forecast thinking is similar to a GFS-CMC blend and dismissing the ECMWF at this time.
Update 18Z model runs: ECMWF decreases forecast totals and becomes the lower model while the NAM ups its forecast from 12Z run. 18Z GFS is roughly the same as previous runs. My current forecast thinking is a 18Z GFS-NAM blend. Otherwise, previous forecast remains unchanged at this time.
12Z CMC
18Z GFS
18Z GFS
Heavy rainfall could cause flash flooding in areas prone to flooding. Current river levels aren’t too high and I don’t see major river flooding as a result of this system.
There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm or two for our extreme southern counties.