Thanksgiving Week Weather For ENC
Update: Changed references of tropical depression to tropical storm.
Cold conditions persist from the recent frontal passage over the weekend with many places seeing low temperatures drop near or below freezing overnight. Temperatures during the day will climb to the mid to upper 50s under sunny skies. We will see another cold night as light winds and clear skies will drop low temperatures to the upper 20s to low 30s across the area.
High pressure will push offshore just to the north on Wednesday. Flow should return from the southwest as the next system approaches the east coast on Wednesday night and into Thursday morning. The GFS and Euro models are showing very little with regards to precipitation with only a few hundredths to a tenth possible. Temperatures will be comfortable by Thanksgiving Day afternoon as most areas will see high temperatures reaching near or above 70.
Fires In WNC
In the western part of the state, wild fires continue to burn as dry conditions and gusty winds persist and doesn’t seem to be letting up anytime soon.
The region is experiencing extreme to exceptional drought conditions where rain hasn’t fallen in over a month. The system moving through the country this week will not provide the rain they need to overcome this deficit and help control the fires. These conditions are leading to new fires starting creating an even greater challenge.
These fires have also caused air quality concerns for populations near and downwind of the fires.
The next chance for decent rain may not occur until November 29 when the models show a system swinging through the CONUS.
Tropical Storm Otto Forms
A tropical disturbance that has been watched over the past few days has officially formed into a tropical depression. As of the 1:00 PM Special Advisory: Tropical Depression 16 has strengthened to Tropical Storm Otto.
Tropical Storm Otto
1:00 PM EST on November 21, 2016
Location 11.5 N -79.3 W
Winds: 50 mph Gust: 65 mph
Pressure: 1000 mb
Category: 0
Moving: Nearly Stationary at 0 mph
The storm hasn’t moved very much during this time and this general motion should continue for the next 24-48 hours. At that point a ridge will strengthen to the north and will push the storm to the west making landfall over Central America as a category 1 hurricane.
The next storm name on the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane List is Otto and TD 16 would receive this name upon Tropical Storm development. As of 1:00 PM the storm was named Otto.
People in this area need to monitor the forecast and prepare for the potential of a landfalling hurricane.
The system will have difficulty surviving intact after traveling across Central America and would in all likelihood would be a remnant low.
Site Information
For the past month I have received treatment for health issues which has kept me away from frequent forecast updates. Treatment should be done by the first of the year but hope to be back on more often before then.