Good morning, ENC! Another mostly sunny day in store as high temperatures slowly rise into the upper 80s to low 90s. High pressure will remain offshore over the next two days as upper-level ridging builds in from the west. This will keep our daily temperatures feeling more like summer than fall. The good news is the dew points will remain below summer averages as the arrival of Gulf moisture looks to be delayed until later in the day on Friday so we will have the heat but the humidity will at least be bearable.
The next cold front will slowly approach the area this weekend. Ahead of the front, atmospheric moisture will increase with the aforementioned Gulf moisture in place sparking scattered showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. It doesn’t look like any of the storms will reach severe criteria at this time. With the increase in cloud cover on Saturday, high temperatures should be held down from their full potential though some areas that see more sun could get into the mid-to-upper 80s but I would expect most areas to see lower-to-mid 80s.
The cold front finally reaches the area by Sunday increasing rain chances across the area. There is a chance to see possibly 1-2 inches of rain during the duration of the frontal passage though the chances of seeing higher amounts exists in the northern half of ENC (roughly north of 264). Temperatures will begin to fall on Sunday with highs only reaching the upper-70s.
The cold front should reach the coast by Sunday night/Monday morning where it could stall and linger around the coast bringing a chance of showers to the coastal sections on Monday and Tuesday (depending of where it stalls). Conditions clear up inland on Monday with highs dropping down into the lower-70s and overnight lows in the lower-50s.
As we go through next week, the next chance of rain could come from any system that develops along the stalled frontal boundary. This is the time of year where low pressure systems (tropical, subtropical, or otherwise) could develop and impact our weather so its important to pay attention to that area.
In the Tropical Atlantic, Fay and Hanna have gone post-tropical and weakened. No development is expected over the next 7 days.
