Heavy Rain for This Weekend

Written by on January 21, 2015 in Local Forecast Discussion

Today was slightly cooler in ENC than yesterday with highs just making it into the low 60s. Temperatures tonight will also be low than last night with lows dropping into the mid to upper 30s.

We will see mostly sunny conditions Thursday with highs averaging around 5 degrees cooler than Wednesday. During the day the next system heading our way will begin to develop as an upper-level trough dives southeastward and interacts with the frontal boundary over the Gulf of Mexico. A surface low will then develop then begin tracking towards the Florida panhandle Thursday night. Ahead of the low, clouds will begin to build into the region by Thursday night. Rain should begin Friday afternoon and overspread the area from southwest to northeast as isentropic lift increases. The rain will be widespread with everyone in ENC seeing rain at some point. Heavy precipitation will be likely with this system which could produce rainfall totals in the range of 0.50″ – 1.00″ with isolated 1.00″+ near the coast.

NAM forecast for Friday evening.

NAM forecast for Friday evening.

As for the storm I was watching for Monday…it appears at this time that the evolution of this system will not be as strong as recent models suggested which isn’t a big surprise given the high uncertainty. The GFS gave a slight hint of wintry precipitation maybe making it into ENC but has backed off quite a bit I may say. The ECMWF which was similar to the GFS yesterday afternoon has swung in the same direction as the GFS but to a lesser degree. The GFS takes a much weaker low passing only a few hundred miles to the north. Precipitation would be limited to the northern half of ENC with the strongest near the NC/VA line. Also, cold air will also be limited as strong cold air damming is not forecast to be strong enough to bring temperatures in ENC below freezing.

GFS forecast for Monday morning.

GFS forecast for Monday morning.

As for the ECMWF, it took a similar trend northward but south of the GFS track. Even with this solution, precipitation chances would be low though far northern sections could see a potential mix precipitation event. Given the inconsistencies, things just are not making me confident in one solution over another to give a solid forecast for Monday. Until more plays out, I will leave any precipitation chances out of my forecast with the hope to come to a better conclusion over the next couple of days. Either way, temperatures will drop below average and look to remain below average during the first part of next week.

I will keep you updated as new information become available.

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