Temperatures across the area today reached mid to upper 80s inland with low to mid 80s near the coast as high pressure builds in from the north. Tuesday we can expect similar high temperatures under sunny skies as the surface high shifts southward over our area.
The entire southeastern US will remain under the influence of the large-scale ridge through Thursday. This will lead to above average temperatures on Wednesday with inland locations reaching 90 while locations near the coast reaching mid to upper 80s. Thursday could bring record-breaking heat for several locations across the east. Inland locations could see temperatures reach the mid 90s and coastal locations ranging mid to upper 80s. A quick look at record high temperatures for October 3 from the region:
New Bern: 92
These locations could see these record high temperatures broken on Thursday. In addition to these temperatures, dewpoints will rise into the 70s in these areas leading to a heat index in excess of 100.
The ridge begins to erode as a mid-level trough pushes a cold front through the region on Friday. As it looks now, moisture appears to be limited so rain is not expected at this time with the frontal passage. Forecast high temperatures are a little tricky and will depend on timing of the front. GFS and Canadian models are favoring a slow progression while the Euro is a couple of hours faster. I am going with the GFS on timing with high temperature being on the upper end of the guidance range with upper 80s to 90 over the southern sections and low to mid 80s north.
This weekend should remain dry with high temperatures near normal (mid to upper 70s). Rain chances return next week.