Matthew Close To Making Landfall Over Florida
Hurricane Matthew
5:00 PM EDT on October 06, 2016
Location 26.2 N -78.6 W
Winds: 140 mph Gust: 165 mph
Pressure: 938 mb
Category: 4
Moving: NW at 13 mph
Matthew was upgraded to a category 4 hurricane earlier today with winds at 140 mph and gusts to 165 mph. Rain bands around the hurricane have been making their way onshore all day with each passing band being stronger than the last. As of this writing, the eye of Hurricane Matthew is now approaching Freeport in the Bahamas. The Miami radar is actually showing Matthew going through an eyewall replacement cycle just off the coast of Florida.
The storm is still moving to the northwest and will continue to get closer to the coast over the next few hours. The storm is forecast to make a close pass near Palm Bay later tonight. Of course, giving the nearly parallel motion of the hurricane, the effects of the eye will not be limited to that area alone since the eye will track for several hundred miles along the coast. This is why this hurricane is unlike any that have come before it. A strong category 4 hurricane with the core of the storm on or near land.
Matthew will weaken slowly further worsening the situation and the number of people involved. The storm is already responsible for over 100 deaths in the Caribbean which should convey to those who stayed how dangerous this storm really is.
The hurricane will continue to travel northward along the coast into coastal Georgia and South Carolina. Slow weakening will be occurring with Matthew remaining a hurricane throughout this track.
The forecast track has changed very little since my update this morning. I was able to determine that the storm will turn eastward off the South Carolina coast before turning more south and west. The slowing of the storm and the weakened trough to the north has allowed a ridge to begin building behind the trough stopping the hurricane’s northeastward track, turn it east briefly, then turn it southwest. After the storm makes the turn, the upper-level environment will weaken the storm even more with Matthew becoming a tropical storm then weaken more to a tropical depression by the time it gets close to Florida again. The forecast beyond the 5 day forecast is highly uncertain though which ever track it takes, the storm will not be a threat to land for the foreseeable forecast.
Impacts for eastern North Carolina:
The hurricane could be within 100 miles of Wilmington but is not forecast to make landfall over the coastal North Carolina but will pass south of the storm. Tropical storm winds are possible along the southern coast of NC. If you are in this area, make sure you monitor the NHC and NWS for any watches/warnings. As Matthew tracks northward, the bulk of the precipitation will be displaced north of the center of the storm. This will bring very heavy rain for the area.
Current rainfall estimates show the greatest rainfall totals over the coastal sections with the far southern section and Albemarle Sound area. These areas could see rainfall over 10″ in an area that cannot handle all the rain right now. The rainfall totals fall off somewhat inland though the totals are still high. The NWS has issued a Flood Watch for all counties in the Morehead City forecast zone. This rainfall will begin Friday night and continue into Sunday.
Areas to the south are in for a long 72 hours but for ENC, things are thankfully looking better.
I will continue to update on this storm as needed. My next post should come tomorrow morning if nothing new occurs tonight.
Have a good day and stay safe!