Matthew Is Now On The Florida Coast
Update: Hurricane Matthew’s forecast track has shifted a little northward this morning. This has prompted Hurricane Warnings (far south) and Tropical Storm Warnings (most of ENC) until Sunday. Heavy rainfall is still forecast in our area resulting in 6-12″ rain with some locations receiving up to 15″. With the ground already heavily saturated, with the addition of potential tropical storm and hurricane force winds we could expect some trees to fall in areas. I will provide another update later today as needed.
Hurricane Matthew
5:00 AM EDT on October 07, 2016
Location 28.2 N -80 W
Winds: 120 mph Gust: 150 mph
Pressure: 938 mb
Category: 3
Moving: NNW at 13 mph
Hurricane Matthew has been downgraded to a category 3 hurricane. The winds are 120 mph with gusts to 150 mph. This downgrade has not changed how dangerous this storm is.
Matthew has been hugging the east coast of Florida overnight. The eyewall of Matthew has expanded over the past 24 hours as it went through an eyewall replacement cycle. This has helped the storm weaken somewhat as the outer eyewall begin to become the dominant eyewall. This unfortunately has led to the eyewall becoming much larger which now covers more area than the previous small eyewall. We have begun to see this new eyewall now moving over Cape Canaveral so conditions there have become to deteriorate significantly.
The east coast of Florida and all the way up to South Carolina will continue to get battered from Matthew over the next 24-48 hours. There will be slow weakening as it moves northward as it begins to enter area of higher shear and longer interaction with land. This weakening will be very slow so the strength of the storm will still be dangerous as it goes along. Areas to the north aren’t out of the woods at all.
The forecast track hasn’t changed over the previous forecast track except for a slight northerly position as it passes south of the North Carolina coast.
The next major impact from this storm will be the heavy rain and flooding this storm will bring eastern North Carolina.
As you can see, the heaviest rain will be displaced north of the center as it begins to merge with the cold front and trough along the east coast. Some gusty winds could be expected across the region with tropical storm conditions possible along the southern NC coast. Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued along the southern coast. The amount of total rain left by the storm will be very significant.
As you can see there will be a band of major rainfall totals over ENC. The GFS has rainfall totals exceeding one foot in some places. This on top of the rainfall that has already fallen Thursday night and into Friday morning will create a serious flooding situation across the east. There has been Flash Flood Watches issued over most of eastern North Carolina.
I will continue to monitor the situation and will have updates later in the day. Be prepared now for a major weather event this weekend.
Stay safe this Friday!