Major Hurricane Matthew Takes Aim At Florida
Hurricane Matthew
5:00 AM EDT on October 06, 2016
Location 24.2 N -77.1 W
Winds: 125 mph Gust: 155 mph
Pressure: 944 mb
Category: 3
Moving: NW at 12 mph
Major Hurricane Matthew has become stronger over night with winds at 125 mph and gusts to 155 mph. This makes Matthew a category 3 hurricane. The satellite presentation this morning appears a little disorganized losing the well define structure it had last night. This by no means that this storm has weakened. In fact, the storm is strengthening and will continue to do so until it makes its close passage to Florida. Before it reaches the coast, it is expected to become a category 4 hurricane. This will make bad conditions in Florida even worse.
Not much has really changed overnight concerning the forecast track of Matthew. The models are coming into better agreement on the handling of the trough to the north. A went into a little more detail in my last post and since I’m running a little behind this morning I will only reference the overall setup.
As you may remember the models showed a weaker trough over the northern US and a slower storm. The 12Z Euro had the storm a little faster and the trough slightly stronger. This allowed the storm to travel more northward along the coast before the ridge to the west begin to build to the north behind the exiting trough. This is what will turn Matthew east away from the coast. The slower solutions had this turning east a little more south around Charleston, SC. The 06Z GFS began to come in line with the Euro bringing the storm closer to the NC coast but still has a hard east turn just south of Cape Lookout.
Before that happens, the storm will travel extremely close to the Florida coast and has the potential for a landfall near the Cape Canaveral, Florida. Whether it makes landfall or not is insignificant at this stage. The hurricane force winds will still extend well inland from the coast and the tropical storm force winds could be experienced by areas on the western side of the Peninsula. Hurricane warnings have been posted for area along the east coast while a tropical storm warning has been posted for the western side. This does not extend into the panhandle.
Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are planed for areas along the coast to the north over Georgia and South Carolina. The impacts from this storm will be extremely dangerous. This could be the strongest storm to hit the region on several decades. All coastal sections have been issued an evacuation of some sort and it is extremely recommended that you follow these orders if you are in any of these locations. Do not try to ride out this storm! The damaged cause by this storm will be deadly. This storm could remain a major hurricane for most of its trip up the coast.
The storm will be free of shear for the beginning part of its trip along the coast. Shear is expected to increase over the storm as it travel north. Dry air over the land will also begin to get injected into the storm which would help weaken it over time. It will not encounter this dry air when it first arrives close to land since the environment around it currently will be brought with it initially so you will not see weakening very early on along the coast. It will take time but it will eventually happen. The storm’s interaction with land outside of the dry air will help disrupt the winds slightly which will help to reduce the flow around the storm. Finally, while the Gulf Stream travels up the east coast, it will begin to enter a region where the Gulf Stream is separated from the coast leaving cooler waters right up next to the coast. Without warm water, its fuel has been reduced as well.
All these things working together to help weaken the storm will help soften the blow to the north. I want to warn when I say weaken, I don’t mean it will drop down to a tropical storm or depression. Weakening in this case is taking it from a category 4 storm to a category 2 storm. The storm will still be very dangerous and the weakening will not be noticeable in terms of power and damage.
This storm will impact millions of people and do severe damage. This is a once in a lifetime hurricane so it should be treated with great respect and caution. Do not take any risks you don’t need to take. If you live on the coast, you are not safe. I don’t care how many storms you have been through. I’ve been through a lot and none of them were this strength. Please listen to the NHC, NWS, and local authorities for instructions of what to do to protect your life.
I hope everyone makes it through this storm safe. I will be making another discussion later this afternoon with any updates on this dangerous situation.