Matthew Back Down To A Category 4 Hurricane
Hurricane Matthew
8:00 AM EDT on October 01, 2016
Location 13.4 N -73.1 W
Winds: 155 mph Gust: 190 mph
Pressure: 947 mb
Category: 4
Moving: W at 7 mph
Hurricane Matthew briefly hit category 5 status overnight with winds over 160 mph. Those winds have slowed down a little now with winds at 155 mph which is 2 mph away from being a category 5 hurricane again.
The storm has slowed a little overnight now heading due west at 7 mph and a turn to the north is expected in the next 24 hours. When this turn occurs, it is expected to approach Jamaica to the north. Where the storm turns northward will dictate whether or not the center of the storm travels over Jamaica. If it stays offshore, the strongest winds will stay offshore as well. However, this matters very little since hurricane force winds extend far enough away from the center to bring hurricane conditions to the Island.
The main concern is for the city of Kingston which is heavily populated and will result in major damage both winds and storm surge. People in Kingston and surrounding areas should be prepared and take action now. The storm will begin to affect the Island by early Monday morning and action after this time will be too late.
The storm will also extend to Haiti, a country that wouldn’t fare too well with strong winds and heavy rain. The only good news is the center of the storm will not pass over the country, but tropical storm force winds and potentially hurricane force winds are still to be expected starting early Monday and lasting for several hours. People in this area will also need to take action now before the storm arrives.
The storm will then set its sights on eastern Cuba which will begin to feel the effects late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. The storm is forecast to weaken some while it passes by the rough terrain on Haiti and Jamaica but would still be a category 3 hurricane by that time.
The storm will then exit Cuba by early Wednesday morning and then set its sight on the Bahamas. This is where the models divide with regards to future forecast tracks.
The official forecast track for this time period from the NHC is:
As you can see the forecast cone has shifted from yesterday’s forecast and now includes Miami, Florida and other spots on the east coast of Florida. The reason why they have been included is the uncertainty of the forecast model solutions which could bring the storm very close to the east coast of Florida.
The concern is lack of confidence in relation to forecast track is the strength of the ridge over the Atlantic, the timing of the trough over the US, and the strength of the trough to the north of the storm. The forecast also gets complicated with the possible development of low pressure close to the storm. Like I mentioned yesterday, this storm has been the most difficult storm to forecast in recent memory for me, which has made it very entertaining, aside from the destruction it is going to ultimately cause.
If we look at two extreme solutions between the GFS and Euro, we see all the features displayed that make this difficult. Starting with the GFS:
As you cans see, the ridge over the Atlantic is helping keep the storm closer to the east coast. We also see the trough over the mid-west states extending all the down to the Gulf of Mexico. This will also pick up the storm and steer it away from the east coast when it gets close to the North Carolina coast. We also have a weak trough just to the north of the system which will erode some of the ridge to its north making a blocking scenario a little more difficult. The storm will also feel the effects of this which will help it stay offshore.
With the Euro:
Taken at the same time as the GFS, we notice that the storm is much further off the coast than the GFS solution. Whats causing this eastward movement is the strength of the trough to the north eroding the ridge over the Atlantic allowing the storm to travel away from the coast. It also shows the trough over the US much stronger than the GFS. The storm will also feel the effects of this trough sooner which will lead to a more easterly track.
Given that forecast models out this far are unreliable especially when we are dealing with a trough that isn’t even over the US yet.
To sum up:
What we are looking for is the strength of the ridge over the Atlantic. If it is strong, expect a track close to the east coast. If it is weak, it should track further off the coast. If the trough is strong or faster than forecast, expect a track away from the coast. If the trough is weak or slow, expect a track close to the coast. If the trough off the NE US coast is week, expect a track closer to the coast once it gets further north. If the trough off the NE US coast is strong, expect a track away from the coast once it gets further north.
I wish I could tell you which scenario is most likely but it is impossible at this time to give you a definitive answer.
If you are on the east coast of the US, continue to monitor the progress of this system over the coming days. We still have several days to watch and prepare.
I will be at the East Carolina vs. UCF game for a couple of hours and will not be available to update during this time. I hope to be back online later this afternoon with any addition forecast thinking that I might have.
Have a great Saturday!
Update: The Euro has moved the track a little further to the west in response to a slower trough movement over the CONUS. This brings it a little closer to the 12Z and 18Z GFS solutions and west of the 12Z CMC. The timing of closest pass to ENC (or possible landfall) would occur somewhere between Friday – Monday next weekend.
Other models continue to be spread out pretty far during this time period and any forecast this far out could end up busting. I will evaluate the data and provide a more detailed update either later this evening or early tomorrow morning. Right now, all possibility are on the table. Be prepared and ready to act by this weekend if necessary.