Hurricane Matthew Makes Its Turn Northwestward
Note: Updates will appear at the bottom.
Matthew has made its expected turn to the northwest. Watching the animated satellite image last night, as it slowed down to make its turn, the center completed a clockwise loop right before our very eyes. It was neat though but not unprecedented.
This morning the eye has become somewhat filled in as it appears to be undergoing an eye wall replacement. This is common among stronger storms where the eye wall constricts tightly while a band further away from the center begins to completely surround the inner eyewall. As a result, the inner eyewall becomes choked off and the outer wall then becomes the main eyewall before constricting closer to the actual center.
The image above shows how the inner eyewall is open on the southeast side. You can also see another band trying to fill in around the inner eyewall. If we were to extrapolate this process out, you would see what I described happening during the next couple of hours. Once this replacement occurs, the storm will then be able to restrengthen as long as the surrounding environment remains favorable which it should.
Another thing unusual about this storm that I haven’t noticed with any other storm that I can remember is a large area of convection to the east which seems to be independent of the actual center of the storm. This convection has remained to the east of the storm for almost its entire life span and obviously isn’t inhibiting the storm since it still gained category 5 status.
What impact it has on the future track or intensity at this time is completely unknown to me. Honestly I don’t see this as a negative feature since it is still traveling like a hurricane would without it. However, if this were to remain intact over the next couple of days, it could bring added storms further east of the storm by itself which brings me to the near term forecast.
Since this storm has made this northward turn, the track over the next 3 days is closer to being locked in.
The forecast track has shifted east in response to the recent turn which looks to take a direct landfall away from Jamaica. They aren’t out of the woods quite yet since they can still feel the effects of the storm as it passes. Our main concern is the forecast track has moved very close to Haiti which could take the brunt of the storm. Along with tropical storm winds (potentially hurricane force winds), heavy rain will begin to over spread the region. This will inundate a country that is very poor to begin with. The terrain is also very mountainous which could create numerous landslides which could be catastrophic for the region. This storm will begin to affect the country by early Monday morning and won’t exit the area until late Tuesday.
The track will also take it over eastern Cuba which also has a mountainous terrain over that region. The results could be similar as Haiti. An evacuation of Gitmo is taking place as we speak ahead of the approaching storm. What that exactly involves is probably posted somewhere on the internet which I will not include in this writing.
The storm should be moving away from Cuba and into the Bahamas by Wednesday morning. The storm will have weakened some due to its interaction with the mountainous terrain. When I say weaken, we are talking about a very minor weakening as the storm could maintain at least a category 3 classification throughout its passing.
It will take its time exiting the area and we are looking at 48 hours of major hurricane conditions over the islands. This will also be very destructive to this area.
It is important that if you live in any of these areas, you need to take action now as this is a very dangerous situation that can result in loss of life and property. This storm needs to be taken very seriously and waiting to the last second to act could be too late.
Where the storm goes afterwards is still a mystery that has been difficult to forecast. Over the past couple of days I have been going over potential scenarios that could result in US impact.
The Euro which has been completely inconsistent compared to other models, now has a solution that is near the 00Z and 06Z GFS solution. This is concerning since this will bring it very close to the east coast of the United States. These solutions would bring the storm close or make landfall in ENC.
I would like to strongly emphasis that the follow images are meant for explanation purposes only and do NOT reflect an official forecast. This forecast can and will change over time.
As you can see while there is a difference between the two, they both show a possible impact with ENC.
Up to this point, the GFS has remained remarkably consistent with its forecast (doesn’t mean its correct!). The ridge over the Atlantic has changed very little over the recent runs. The low to the north is remaining in a position that doesn’t erode the ridge on the western side. Over time, the trough forecast to sweep through the central part of the US has been further north and slower which allows the storm to travel further north without being pushed out to see quickly. If this forecast verifies, a track over ENC would be favored in this situation. There are complications in the forecast track that could impact this particular forecast track.
I mentioned earlier that the Euro turned the storm out to sea before reaching the ENC coast. This is because the storm on the Euro is one day slower than the GFS. If the storm is slower than the current GFS forecast, the same fate will befall its future track. So you can see what factors are coming into play and why we need to continue to monitor the situation closely over the next couple of days since a one day difference in speed could be the difference in what we can expect from this storm.
The GFS ensembles also show some uncertainty with respect to this forecast track. Maybe a hand full of these solution show a land falling storm. The operational model that we have been talking about is one of the few that show a land falling storm.
I would also like to mention that these two models aren’t the only two models that are tracking this storm. There are several model tracks well offshore which there are too many to ignore.
Like I said before there are many unknowns with this forecast and we much make sure we don’t get too far ahead of ourselves with focusing on just a hand full of models.
With that said, make sure you prepare for the worst. If you prepare and nothing happens, what have you lost? Don’t put your life at risk. Make a plan now while you have time.
I will continue to monitor the situation and will report back this afternoon once we get a little more information.
Update: The 12Z GFS has a slightly slower storm as well as a stronger upper-level trough just off the northeast US. This will erode the western portion of the ridge over the Atlantic. With this slower movement the trough over the CONUS will press eastward and pick up the storm and carry it away from the North Carolina coast. This is closer to the 00Z Euro which had the same upper trough to the north. The CMC model shows that same scenario only further off the coast.
We will have to see if this is replicated by the 12Z Euro in a couple of hours which I am willing to bet it shows the same features.
Once again, these models will probably swing the track back and forth as different features evolve.
I probably won’t do another full length discussion until later this evening after the 18Z GFS run.
Update: Sounding data will not be collected at 18Z and potentially 06Z for eastern and southern regions. This is typical for a potential land falling hurricane. I really like that they do this particularly in situations like this where future features over the US could impact the final track of this system. Soundings are already used for the 00Z and 12Z runs and the 06Z and 18Z runs are based off of other data which leads to potential errors.
Still planing another discussion a little later.
Update: After the 12Z Euro model run it shows a different reaction to the surrounding environment as it approaches the North Carolina coast. The upper-level low is further to the east but there is another feature to keep an eye on. There is an invest system in the mid Atlantic Ocean that will also rotate around the ridge over the Atlantic. This could develop into a tropical system but most likely will not. It does have implications on the future track of Matthew. If the upper-low moves eastward away from the northeastern CONUS before Matthew arrives, the invest system could be in place to take advantage of the mid-level energy and prevent the ridge from building back in over the Atlantic. Matthew feels that weakness and slows down off the coast. This slowing will allow the trough over the CONUS to pull Matthew away from the coast. After that point an even more complicated than the current forecast so I will leave that conversation for another day.
There is still a lot of data to look over and I still plan to post another discussion later this evening.