Category 4 Matthew Still Gaining Strength
A really impressive category 4 hurricane moving westward in the south Caribbean now has wind speeds at 140 mph with gusts to 165 mph.
It should be noted that while it’s winds are extremely high, they are isolated to right around the center which is common with storms this powerful.
We are now within 48 hours of the northward turn of Matthew which will take it to Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba over the next couple of days. Its hard to say right now if this will be a category 3 or 4 hurricane at the time of landfall but at this power it doesn’t really make much of a difference. If you are on these Islands, you should already be prepared for this and begin executing your safety procedures now what ever they may be.
As it goes through the Islands, it will encounter a very rough terrain. This will weaken the storm somewhat as it travels through them. At the moment I would expect a drop to a category 2 by the time it emerges off the coast of Cuba.
The storm will then traverse to the Bahamas where the forecast gets a little more murky. Most models bring the storm northward out of the Bahamas around the western section of a ridge over the Atlantic. Depending on the strength of this ridge, the track of the storm could bring it close to the east coast. In fact that has been the trend over the past couple of days. This is because the upper-level low that was forecast to be over the northeastern US is weaker than it was a couple of days ago. This will allow the ridge to be stronger over the Atlantic in a few days.
There was a difference in GFS model runs between the 12Z GFS and the recent 18Z GFS run which brings the storm very close to the east coast. This is in response to the stronger ridge to the east.
The ridge will begin to break down as the trough moves over the US and approaches the eastern US. This will then move the storm northward parallel to the coast before moving away from the coast around the Outer Banks.
What is very important is that even though we are tracking the center of the storm, we cannot forget that the storm extends out from the center and the effects can be felt even if the center stays just offshore. Also to keep in mind is that one small movement could be the difference between landfall and staying off the coast.
The NHC has posted their official forecast for the current advisory on 9-30-16 at 5pm. It is important to know that the cone does not mean the effects are confined to the areas in the cone. The effects can still be experienced away from the posted cone. Those who live in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and northeastern States should monitor this storm closely as all of these locations are under the gun with this storm.
As I mentioned before, the other forecast models are also showing this pattern of a path along the east coast for the long-term forecast. With such a wide range even at this stage shows that there isn’t a huge certainty among the exact track of this storm.
As much as I hate disregarding a respected model’s (12Z Euro) forecast, this forecast solution, while physically possible, is probably not very likely.
So make sure you are paying attention to the forecast in the coming days and I will try my best to update when possible.
Since tomorrow is college football day, I will be unavailable for most of the daylight hours but will be back online by late tomorrow afternoon.