Hurricane Matthew Hitting Haiti, Future Become More Clear
Update: The 12Z GFS is slightly southeast of the previous couple of runs. The models show a slightly slower storm and a slightly less negative tilt on the trough over the Great Lakes. We will have to see if this pans out but this is probably the most difficult feature to forecast and it has so much sway over the storms forecast. Right now, I would inch the forecast slightly southward with potential for landfall in North Carolina. There will be several variations over the next couple of days and its too soon to know if this is a trend. I will be watching the 12Z CMC and 12Z Euro when they come in and will comment on those later this afternoon.
Hurricane Matthew
5:00 AM EDT on October 04, 2016
Location 17.8 N -74.4 W
Winds: 145 mph Gust: 175 mph
Pressure: 934 mb
Category: 4
Moving: N at 9 mph
Very large and dangerous category 4 hurricane Matthew will make landfall over Haiti during the next hour or two. This storm is producing damaging winds, storm surge, and very heavy rainfall to the region. The storm is moving slightly to the east from previous forecast track which means the core of the hurricane is actually going to move over land.
As the storm moves on today, the terrain is expected to have an impact on Matthew with some possible weakening over the next couple of hours. Matthew is also forecast to just barely clip the eastern coast of Cuba. The terrain situation is similar to Haiti since most of the mountains in Cuba are located on the eastern side. So this will also impact the storm as well. During its passage through the area, we can expect Matthew to weaken to a category 3 hurricane.
When it emerges of the coast of Cuba Wednesday morning, it will begin to move into a favorable environment to regain some intensity that it lost over the islands. Unfortunately this takes hurricane right over the Bahamas which would bear the brunt of the storm. The islands there are very flat and spread out, its unlikely the storm will face much interaction with these islands and has the opportunity to regain its previous strength. The main concern for the Bahamas is the speed of the hurricane. It will take 48 hours for the storm to clear the islands which is very bad for that region. If you are in this region you need to prepare to take action. If you have a way off the islands do so.
The forecast after this is starting to become a little clearer though we still have to wait and see how everything sets up. My forecast last night still applies for this mornings forecast so I won’t go into too much detail due to lack of time. The ridge over the Atlantic is going to remain strong since it won’t be feeling the effects of the weaker trough to the north. The ridge has continued to build a little more westward over the past 24 hours which has caused the forecast track to shift further west.
The trough over the central US at the moment is going to cause the ridge to flatten out on its western side right along the coast where the storm will begin to round the western side of the ridge. Depending on the timing of each of the features while dictate how far west the storm will go. The current thinking is the storm will be pushed close to the US coast. The center will be very close to the east coast of Florida and any motion even slightly westward would either keep it barely off the coast or maybe a brief landfall.
The storm tracks parallel to the east coast as trough begins to approach the eastern US. The models are pointing to a potential landfall over Myrtle Beach, SC or Wilmington, NC and reach the inland areas of North Carolina. The storm looks like it will not be pushed west of the Pamlico Sound and will exit off the coast by Kitty Hawk, NC.
The exact strength of the storm is unknown as it approaches ENC. It is still expected to be a hurricane at that time but whether it is a category 1 or 2 is difficult to say. What can be expected from this storm is any location along the southeast coast will experience tropical storm or hurricane conditions even if the center remains barely off shore. In the next day or two, we could begin seeing tropical storm and hurricane watches going up for the east coast starting with Florida and then areas to the north.
The exact track of this storm is still unknown but the models are beginning to converge towards a common solution. This by no means is evidence of forecast confidence but should be used as a reminder that hurricane conditions could impact most if not all along the southeast coast.
Note: Do not concentrate on one model over the others. Look at the spread of the models to determine forecast confidence. A wide range is less confident than a narrow range.
I will provide another update later today with any new information that is available.