Hurricane Matthew Sets Its Sights On Haiti
Update (7:30 PM): Forgot to include intensity forecast.
Hurricane Matthew
5:00 PM EDT on October 03, 2016
Location 16.3 N -74.7 W
Winds: 140 mph Gust: 165 mph
Pressure: 940 mb
Category: 4
Moving: N at 7 mph
Hurricane Matthew remains a category hurricane heading north at 7 mph. The presentation of this hurricane is quite impressive.
This storm will continue this northward motion bringing the center close to Haiti and it is still possible it could make landfall. The closer pass on Haiti has put some relief in some people in Jamaica where the event could have been much worse.
The storm will then move on to eastern Cuba where it will make landfall Tuesday afternoon as a category 3 hurricane.
During its passage it will encounter a mountainous terrain which will help weaken the storm somewhat from a category 4 hurricane to a category 3 hurricane.
Once it is passed Cuba, the forecast becomes a little more difficult. The storm will pass through the Bahamas as a very strong category 3 hurricane which will take around 48 hours.
With the release of the 12Z GFS there was a noticeable shift west in the forecast track. This is potentially significant since this will bring the center of the storm dangerously close to the east coast of the US. A similar shift was also noticed with the 12Z CMC. The 12Z Euro also showed this shift as well. The 18Z GFS run continues the trend of bringing the storm even closer to the east coast with the center of the storm closely parallel to the coast line Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.
The storm could remain strong over the Bahamas with very little shear over the storm and very warm water temperatures. As the storm approaches the US coast the angle of the track will also determine the strength of the storm. The current track, hugging the coast, would likely weaken the storm as it moves northward along the coast as dry air over land gets ingested into the storm. If the storm enters the region strong then it will take more time to weaken than if it enters the region weaker. If the storm enters at a sharper angle, this dry air would have little impact on the storm.
The trend westward in these models over the past 24 hours comes down to the timing of the trough currently entering the US on the west coast.
If you remember from an earlier discussion there were several different features we would have to keep an eye on when looking at potential forecast tracks.
First was the ridge over the mid-Atlantic. This ridge was going to be there but we didn’t know how strong it would be. That technically is the case now but I am seeing signs that this will remain stronger than previous forecast solutions.
Which leads me right into the next feature which is the upper-low over the northeast and the effects on the ridge as a result. In previous model runs this feature helped weaken the ridge allowing a storm track away from the coast. In recent runs, the impact on the strength of the ridge has been diminished significantly which shifts the storm further west as a result.
The last feature to watch was the trough that will traverse the country during the week. A quicker speed is able to pick up the storm and turn it away from the coast. A slower speed would allow a more westerly track until the trough arrived and pushed the storm back northeast, absorbing the storm in the process. If the storm were fast enough, it would ride the ridge around the western side which could bring it inland.
Which brings us to our current situation. The 12Z runs made this westward move because the ridge was stronger and the trough is later. If experience with this storm has taught us anything is that this forecast could change over the next few days and a westward trend here can’t be ignored.
If you live anywhere on the southeast US coast, monitor the situation and be prepared to act to protect life and property. Even if the center of the storm may not make landfall over the US, hurricane or tropical storm conditions may occur inland due to the large nature of this storm. With a long track along the coast the coverage will be spread out even more so areas from Miami to the Outer Banks of North Carolina feels the strong effects. This storm is still a few days away and waiting until its too late can be deadly.
As for impacts for eastern North Carolina, this storm needs to be closely monitored for potential tropical storm or hurricane conditions for as early as this weekend. The recent forecast models have brought the potential forecast track along the coast or landfall somewhere near the North Carolina coast. The range of all the models right now remains quite large and shifts to the east or west can be expected over the next couple of days as the system enters in the western Atlantic and begins to approach the east coast.
I must emphasize how important it is not to focus on one particular model over the others this far out. Look at the spread of all the models in the “spaghetti” plot to determine forecast confidence. Wider spread, lower confidence.
I will continue to monitor the situation and provide any updates that I can. I will also be posting a full discussion tomorrow morning for any new information from overnight.
Monitor the NHC, NWS, or your local authorities for official information regarding Hurricane Matthew.