Hurricane Bertha Will Pass Closest to ENC Tuesday Morning

Written by on August 4, 2014 in Local Forecast Discussion
Visible satellite image of Hurricane Bertha before dark on Monday.

Visible satellite image of Hurricane Bertha before dark on Monday.

For the sake of discussion, I will refer to Bertha as a hurricane (reluctantly). Hurricane Bertha became a category 1 hurricane overnight with winds near 80 mph and central pressure 998mb. Basically, on paper Bertha is a category 1 hurricane but in appearance, I don’t know what to call it. Looking at the satellite image I’m seeing the same thing over the past few days: a disorganized storm with convection frequently away from the center of circulation. At this time the center of circulation is displaced from the main convection indicating that Bertha won’t be strengthening anytime soon. Bertha will only be getting into unfavorable conditions soon with an upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will generate enough shear to ultimately weaken the storm. This will not be all there is with Bertha as a transition to an extra-tropical cyclone is expected as it gets absorbed in the trough.

Forecast track for Bertha.

Forecast track for Bertha.

There will be very minimum impact from Bertha with the major impact being high rip current’s and higher surf.

Forecast for Bertha's closest track to ENC.

Forecast for Bertha’s closest track to ENC. Bertha being the tightly packed isobars above.

Tonight and tomorrow will look a little drier with most of the rain confined just offshore with some scattered showers developing inland but I expect these to be few and far in between.

Forecast radar for early Tuesday morning showing some scattered showers but I do not expect it to be widespread.

Forecast radar for early Tuesday morning showing some scattered showers but I do not expect it to be widespread.

Highs Tuesday could reach upper 80s for inland sections as some breaks in the clouds will allow some much need sunshine to the area. Temperatures along the coast will remain lower with more cloud cover and greater chance of rain so I expect somewhere in the low 80s for the immediate coast. Highs really rebound Wednesday with some inland sections breaking 90 and upper 80s elsewhere. Will have to keep an eye out to see what the next upper trough will do late Wednesday into Thursday as it could have a impact on temperatures for the remainder of the week. I will cover in more detail tomorrow evening as I get better detail from the models.

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