Forecast Update

Written by on September 17, 2014 in Local Forecast Discussion
Surface analysis as of Wednesday afternoon.

Surface analysis as of Wednesday afternoon.

Stall surface front continues to sit south of the region. Some isolated showers and storms have popped up across the southern half of ENC. Most of these remain below severe criteria but do have frequent lightning and one storm had a report of 1″ hail in Onslow County. Vertical integrated liquid numbers on the radar indicate that some of the other storms to the south could produce hail.

These showers and storms will diminish shortly after sunset and most areas will see mostly clear skies tonight with low temperatures reaching the middle 60s across the area.

Thursday will be similar to today with partly cloudy skies with a chance of scattered showers and storms during the afternoon.

Upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS.

Upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS.

An upper-level trough will be situated over the eastern CONUS Thursday. A weak shortwave will rotate through the base of the trough potentially triggering isolated showers and storms. The upper-trough will become more zonal Friday and Saturday though an upper-level low will cutoff from the upper trough leading to a surface low developing across the stalled surface front and track northeastward just off the east coast. Forecast gets a little tricky here as the surface low could bring some rain inland but how far inland and how much is still unknown. Future model runs should hopefully provide a little more guidance on the ‘where’ and ‘how much’. Increased cloudiness across the area this weekend as a result is likely even if rain doesn’t reach all areas.

High temperatures will reach the upper 70s Thursday with some areas possibly reaching 80ยบ.

High pressure builds in from the north Friday with yet another “wedging” event for the east.

High pressure (red) will bring cooler temperatures to the area Friday and Saturday.

High pressure (red) will bring cooler temperatures to the area Friday and Saturday.

Cooler temperatures filtering into the region as a result of the high to the north.

Cooler temperatures filtering into the region as a result of the high to the north.

7 day forecast for ENC.

7 day forecast for ENC.

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