Cooler Temperatures For Christmas Day
With the rain moving out of the area (still some scattered showers over the Outer Banks as of this writing) we will begin to see clearer and warmer conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
We will begin to see skies clearing for our Wednesday with high temperatures rebounding to 55 degrees. Thursday’s high temperatures will be in the upper 50s and further south lower 60s. We will see a few passing clouds as a cold front moves over the region Thursday afternoon though I do not expect any precipitation from this front as it moves through. Temperatures drop back down to the lower 30s Thursday night and only into the lower 50s on Friday.
This weekend another cold front will drop in from the north bring precipitation chances to our area. Both the GFS and Euro show this front and associated precipitation reaching our area by Saturday afternoon. From here the forecast solutions between the two models diverges which will have an impact on our Christmas Day forecast.
The GFS shows stronger high pressure to the north creating cold air damming (CAD) along the mid-Atlantic while the Euro shows a weaker high to the north. Temperatures have been adjusted down from my earlier forecast as a result and could potentially be reduced another couple of degrees if needed. The forecast from the NWS of 63 and GFS MOS of 56 might be on the high side just a little. The GFS keeps rain chances in the area through Saturday night and into early Christmas morning. The Euro kicks the rain out of the area by late Saturday with dry conditions all of Christmas Day.
Update: The 18Z GFS run has backed off on precipitation during Christmas morning. This is closer to the 12Z Euro though still carries a later end time for precipitation.
Update #2: This morning’s 00Z & 06Z GFS has backed off a little with respect to strength of high. This is not a major change and we could continue to see the strength (and position) go back and forward over the next couple of days (as you would expect with forecast models this far out). Ultimately, if it does play out this way, the difference will have very little impact on the forecast from yesterday. I may end up bumping the high temperature on Christmas Day a few degrees higher if this trend continues. Right now, mid to upper 50s looks good with this setup though it could change again.
All precipitation related to this forecast will be rain only.
