Brief Update On Hurricane Irma
This will be my first post on Major Hurricane Irma as it continues it westward track across the Atlantic.
Stats of Irma at the time of this writing:
Hurricane Irma
5:00 PM EDT on August 31, 2017
Location 17.3 N -34.8 W
Winds: 115 mph Gust: 140 mph
Pressure: 967 mb
Category: 3
Moving: WNW at 11 mph
This storm has strengthened quickly and it is still in the early part of its duration over the next 10 days (or maybe longer). Irma is forecast to strengthen over the next couple of days. Imagery of Irma indicates that it is going through an eyewall replacement cycle so for the next several hours I’d expect Irma to possibly weaken slightly as the 2nd eyewall completely surrounds the inner eyewall. Once this is complete, Irma will begin to strengthen as it resides in a very favorable environment.
The forecast for this system remains uncertain in the long term. Short term forecast is a lot more certain with models showing strengthening of the ridge over the Atlantic north of the system causing a turn towards the west-southwestward over the weekend.
By the start of next week, the models diverge greatly as forecast models disagree over the strength of the ridge and its placement. Euro shows a stronger ridge that is much further south west than the GFS leading towards a track further south between Cuba and Florida (which will enter the Gulf of Mexico as a result). The GFS has its inconsistencies as it struggles how to handle the trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley. This would determine how close it would get to the east coast by next weekend.
The yellow line is the NHC offcial forecast at the time of this posting.
The storm’s forecast strength is expected to be very strong. There is a good chance this hurricane reaches category 4 or 5 status in the coming days as it enters a region of very favorable conditions.
It is very early and this forecast will probably be obsolete by tomorrow morning so keep that in mind. What we do know is there is the possibility that this storm could potentially affect land. It is not too early to make sure you are prepared if this were to impact you.
I will continue to monitor the storm and will provide my thoughts over the next week and a half.