Rain Beginning Tonight

Written by on February 1, 2015 in Local Forecast Discussion
Radar and satellite image at 4:00 PM EST Sunday.

Radar and satellite image at 4:00 PM EST Sunday.

Rain has begun to enter western North Carolina and will continue to approach the region tonight.

Forecast reflectivity for Sunday night.

Forecast reflectivity for Sunday night.

Heavy rain can be expected with the approaching cold front with a slight chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Any storms that do develop should remain below severe criteria given insufficient instability.

High temperatures will occur early in the morning ahead of the approaching cold front during the day on Monday. Temperatures will start in the mid to upper 50s in the morning before dropping into the upper 40s by evening and will continue to plummet the 20s inland before sunrise and low to mid 30s along the coast.

High temperatures reach the 50s by mid-week. Forecast becomes complicated by the end of the week as southern stream system  pushing out of the southwestern CONUS. Models have been inconsistent with the evolution and track of the system creating a very wide range forecast track and intensity. The main conflict is the interaction of the northern  and southern stream over the southeastern CONUS by the end of the week. Right now the GFS shows little development as full phasing of the two streams seems less likely while the euro gives it a higher chance. The difference here would result in very two different forecast for ENC. It’s too early to forecast this far out considering the systems in question haven’t even reached the western CONUS yet. Keep in mind it is way too early to jump on one model solution! As the week goes on, I will be monitoring future model runs to see if there is a lean towards one solution or the other. I left a chance of rain on Thursday which would be a mix of GFS and euro with the best chance of rain being along the coast with the passing cold front. I will update daily through this week.

7 day forecast for ENC.

7 day forecast for ENC.

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