Tropical Storm Matthew Heads Westward
Last update for the night. Will resume Thursday morning.
Tropical Storm Matthew is now entering the eastern Caribbean moving west at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds are at 60 mph with gusts up to 70 mph. Minimum pressure at 1008mb. Matthew is forecast to intensify slowly at first to a category 1 hurricane over the next 48 hours as it moves westward through the Caribbean.
We continue to try to figure out the future after this weekend when a turn to the north is expected to happen. Matthew is currently ridding along the southern edge of a ridge to the north. The trough that is forecast to weaken the ridge over the eastern US will serve as the catalyst of the northward turn over the weekend and into early next week. This is where the models diverge. Like earlier, it all comes down to when and where this turn occurs. An earlier turn will lead to a more out to sea track and a later turn would lead to potential landfall in the United States
This morning we had the GFS, CMC, and Euro bringing the storm close to the coast or landfall. By the afternoon, the 12Z GFS began turning the storm more out to sea with a strong trough building in from the west and a weaker, retreating blocking high off the northeast coast of the US. The difference in tracks were roughly 100-200 miles. The 18Z GFS brings it closer to the coast of North Carolina but no landfall. If you’re confused I’ll explain a little bit near the end of this write up.
The 12Z Euro came with a shock to me since it seemed so out of place with the other models and it’s own 00Z run. The GFS and Euro both turn the storm to the north at the same time but the GFS has the storm a little further north when this happens.
Where the difference happens is with 96 hours out, the trough over the eastern US is stronger on the GFS where the Euro has weaker trough and more ridging. With this setup, the GFS has the storm going faster than the Euro. This allows the storm go further north before it is influenced by the approaching trough to the west and the high to the north allowing it to get close to the eastern coast. With the slower Euro solution, the ridge to the north builds more southward than the GFS and the trough picks it up and moves away from land before it has a chance to get to higher latitudes.
Which one prevails? We’ll have to wait and see.
If the difference in forecast tracks wasn’t enough, you also have forecast intensity to deal with. The GFS is showing a 978 mb storm at 180 hours and the Euro brings this storm down to 927 mb. I won’t go into any detail about that since forecast intensity is affected by forecast track and other environmental challenges which is hard to determine this far out in the forecast.
Plus did I mention that there are several other models also covering this storm? We are trying to determine the forecast track of a storm that is still several days away from land and it is too far out to determine which model is correct so all scenarios are possible. Make sure you stay updated on the latest information regarding this storm. It will take several days to cover so be prepared to take action in the event that this is heading your way. If you live in Florida or along the eastern coast of the US, you still have the possibility of a land falling tropical system.
Always follow the NHC, NWS, or local authorities for official information regarding this storm. The forecast above is not an official forecast from the NHC or NWS but is an opinion of the writer based on past education and experience.