Morning Update on Tropical Storm Matthew
Update: I am aware of the 12Z GFS forecast track. I will look at the 12Z Euro when it comes out and will have an update later this afternoon.
I have very little time to make a detailed forecast this morning but here is the latest.
Tropical Storm Matthew is now moving away from the Windward Islands and now sets it sight on the southern Caribbean. It will pass well south of Puerto Rico and most of the brunt of the storm will stay offshore.
Matthew now has winds at 65 mph with gusts over 70 mph. Central pressure is 1003 mb and is moving to the west at 16 mph. Matthew is expected to remain a tropical storm through the southern Caribbean over the next 72 hours. Shear and dry air will limit Matthew’s ability to gain a lot of strength. Once it gets past the shear, it will be in very favorable environment (water temps above 30C).
The official forecast has change just a little from yesterday’s forecast but the forecast thinking is still roughly the same.
The forecast track (minus timing) seems to be similar to the GFS and Euro which turns the storm to the north this weekend and into the early part of next week as it begins to round the west side of the ridge. The northward turn will also be aided by a trough over the Gulf of Mexico.
The GFS remains faster than the Euro this morning with similar solutions as yesterday afternoon. GFS might be a little faster from yesterday but doesn’t seem to change much in the forecast track. So like yesterday, the faster GFS brings the storm closer to the east coast which allows it to interact with the surrounding synoptic features earlier in the forecast period. The Euro remains slower which means the same synoptic features will have already moved eastward by the time it reaches higher latitudes. The forecast track is further off the coast diverting from the GFS track around the Bahamas.
There remains a large uncertainty as the ensemble members remain rather spread out. While the Gulf of Mexico might seem to be out of the woods, there is still an outside chance that this could make it into the Gulf of Mexico. If you live in this area, make sure you keep track of this storm.
We won’t really get an idea of what this storm is going to do until we see the turn to the north, how fast is it going, where does it turn? This information is vital for the future direction of this storm.
I will continue to monitor throughout the day and will update around lunch if there is anymore information to share. If not, I will be back online this evening with another forecast update.
I want to emphasize that this is an opinion forecast by the author of this site and may not be the opinion of the NHC or other agencies. Always heed the advise of the NHC, NWS, and local authorities when making a decision in regards of preparing for the storm.