Edouard and Odile Update

Written by on September 14, 2014 in Tropics
Visible Satellite image of Tropical Storm Edouard as of 10:30 PM EDT.

Visible Satellite image of Tropical Storm Edouard as of 10:30 PM EDT.

Edouard has become the fourth hurricane to form in the Atlantic Ocean this season. As of the 11 AM AST advisory, Edouard was located at 24.7ºN 50.7ºW moving NW at 16 mph. The minimum pressure was 984 mb and maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. This new information show an increase in forward speed by 2 mph since the previous advisory. This track will continue today before making a northward turn during the next 48-72 hours as it enters a weakness in the ridge. By mid-week, Edouard will accelerate to the northeast ahead of the upper-level trough moving eastward over the western Atlantic Ocean, just off the eastern CONUS coast.

Intensity will remain high over the next couple of days with the potential for major hurricane status before transitioning into a extratropical cyclone by the end of the week.

No landmass is at risk of landfall of Hurricane Edouard.

Forecast track for Hurricane Edouard.

Forecast track for Hurricane Edouard.

Forecast model tracks for Hurricane Edouard.

Forecast model tracks for Hurricane Edouard.

IR satellite image of Hurricane Edouard.

IR satellite image of Hurricane Edouard.

Hurricane Odile is now a category 4 major hurricane just off the Mexico coast. Odile is located at 20.0ºN 108.2ºW moving to the northwest at 14 mph. The minimum pressure was 941 mb and maximum sustained wind speeds of 135 mph.

Visible satellite image of Major Hurricane Odile.

Visible satellite image of Major Hurricane Odile.

Odile is a dangerous hurricane and will pass dangerously close to the southern Baja California and continue to track just off the coast over the next several days. This is the forecast track for the center of Odile but the dangerous winds and rain will spread well inland. Hurricane warnings have already been issued for the western and eastern coast of Baja California and I expect that more warnings will be issued further north over the next few days.

Forecast track for Major Hurricane Odile.

Forecast track for Major Hurricane Odile.

Forecast model tracks for Major Hurricane Odile.

Forecast model tracks for Major Hurricane Odile.

Odile will remain a major hurricane for at least the next two days. There two eye walls in Odile at the moment indicating the it is going through eyewall replacement. During this process, strengthening will be limited and might actually weaken slightly as the old eyewall dies and the new, outer eyewall becomes the dominant eyewall. Once this occurs, strengthening will be likely.

Imagery showing Odile in mid-eyewall replacement cycle.

Imagery showing Odile in mid-eyewall replacement cycle. Image source: CIMSS

Odile will weaken later this week and could impact the SW CONUS with heavy rains by early next week.

IR image of Major Hurricane Odile.

IR image of Major Hurricane Odile.

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