Complex Forecast For Hurricane Matthew
The opinions in this forecast are mine and not necessarily the opinion of the NHC.
Hurricane Matthew
5:00 AM EDT on September 30, 2016
Location 14 N -69.9 W
Winds: 100 mph Gust: 120 mph
Pressure: 979 mb
Category: 2
Moving: W at 14 mph
Mathew has develop into a category 2 hurricane overnight and this strengthen pattern will continue to persist into the next few days. It is entering a much more favorable environment and could become a category 3 hurricane in the next day or two. The official NHC forecast for Matthew is also calling for a category 3 storm in its early forecast.
The forecast continues to be tricky as we head into the weekend. Matthew is forecast to slow somewhat over the next few days which will have a major impact on the future forecast.
A trough is forecast to be situated over the Gulf of Mexico which will serve as the catalyst for its northward turn south of eastern Cuba. Depending on where this turn takes place it could end up impacting Jamaica, Cuba, or Haiti in a few days. It also sets up a more concrete track going forward. Over the past couple of days I have been hinting that the forecast depends on speed of the system. The GFS is still faster than the Euro in its forecast. A quicker solution in this case would have it turn northward early Saturday morning. A ridge to the storms northeast will be a little weaker during this time but still cause the storm to travel along the coast. The storm will also be steered by the trough to the west.
What happens next depends on the upper-level low over the northeast. If the upper-low begins to move eastward away from the country, the storm could then move away from the coast and out to sea.
The Euro on the other hand is slower with the progression of the storm as it heads northward. In this situation if the storm is slower it would allow the ridge over the Atlantic to be able to build westward potentially causing landfall along the eastern US. Still being a week out, a definitive forecast track would be hard to determine. It does appear though the storm will most likely stay out of the Gulf, but anything is possible so I wouldn’t ignore this storm.
As for anyone on the east coast, I urge you to prepare as if you were going to get hit by this storm because you may. I have to cut this short this morning due to time constraints but hope to have an update this afternoon once I take a look at the situation building.