Active Week Ahead
After some rain on Friday night, Saturday morning began with overcast skies. The sun broke through by the afternoon and skies began to clear. The high temperature for the day occurred around midnight and fell through the morning hours. The afternoon high temperatures topped out in the mid to upper 50s in the area. We will see temperatures drop into the lower to mid 30s overnight under clear skies.
Sunday will see sunny skies under the influence of high pressure over the North Carolina. High temperatures should range in the lower 50s to mid 50s tomorrow afternoon and low temperatures Sunday night should fall into the lower to mid 30s.
The next feature to watch this week will an upper-level trough over the middle part of the country. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will travel along the eastern side of a long-wave trough from Texas to the Great Lakes. This will bring a warm front northward over the region bring a chance of rain to the area. Temperatures will rise into the 70s after the passage of the front. Conditions at that time do support a slight chance of thunderstorms in the area though it doesn’t appear that environment would support severe storms at that time.
During this time there will be an abundance of moisture available to support the potential for heavy rain.
The long wave trough moves eastward Wednesday bringing with it a cold front that will be over ENC by early Thursday morning. As the front approaches, a large amount of moisture will filter into the area from the south resulting in some heavy rainfall ahead of the front.
The heavy rain will be a welcome sight to many over the southeast that have been experiencing drought conditions for the past couple of months. As of Saturday night, the GFS and Euro 2-3″ for the Tuesday-Thursday time frame which is down from the 4-5″ from earlier runs.
The amount of available moisture will continue to be important as to whether this forecast verifies and could fluctuate over the next couple of days.
The rainfall amounts over the eastern part of the state will not be as much with 0.75″- 1.00″ as the most likely result from this run.
The cold front pushes off the coast Thursday morning. Drier, colder air will move into the area dropping temperatures slightly below normal heading into next weekend.
I hope everyone has a great Sunday!