Tropical Storm Bertha Forms In The Atlantic Ocean

Written by on August 1, 2014 in Tropics
IR satellite image of newly formed Tropical Storm Bertha.

IR satellite image of newly formed Tropical Storm Bertha.

Invest 93L is organized enough for the NHC to upgrade it to Tropical Storm Bertha with at 45 mph and central pressure of 1008 mb. After looking half dead yesterday, convection has developed near the center of circulation overnight. All of this convection has occurred on the east side of the center of circulation with dry air dominating the western half of Bertha. The dry air ahead of Bertha does appear to be lessening which will allow convection a chance to develop on the western half.

Forecast track for Bertha as of 3:00 AM EDT.

Forecast track for Bertha as of 3:00 AM EDT.

The GFS and Euro do pick up Bertha initially with the Euro carrying the storm over the Lesser Antilles and over the Dominican Republic where it will have to travel over rough terrain and appear on the other side still intact. This is where the Euro essentially drops Bertha to a tropical wave as it rounds the western flank of the ridge. The GFS has a similar forecast taking Bertha along the same track but the difference between the two models is the GFS restrengthens Bertha to a tropical storm as it rounds the western flank of the ridge. Neither scenario brings Bertha to the east coast as it gets picked up by the upper-level trough and transported rapidly northeastward away from the CONUS.

The GFS has Bertha pulling away after crossing the Dominican Republic as a tropical wave. The GFS also strengthen it back to a tropical storm (or close to) as it gets picked up by the upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS and pushed away from the east coast.

The GFS has Bertha pulling away after crossing the Dominican Republic as a tropical wave. The GFS also strengthen it back to a tropical storm (or close to) as it gets picked up by the upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS and pushed away from the east coast.

I will go into details later this afternoon if Tropical Storm Bertha is able to maintain.

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