Tropical Depression One Becomes Tropical Storm Arthur
Tropical Depression One Becomes Tropical Storm Arthur at 11PM this evening with winds at 40 mph traveling NNE at 13 mph. The official forecast track has been trending eastward further off the North Carolina coast but there is still some uncertainty to the exact track with the GFS bringing the center of the storm very close to the coast and the ECMWF keeping it well offshore. The key feature that will determine the future track of this system is the shortwave that will be passing through the Gulf Coast states by late Sunday and into Monday. If the shortwave dives more southward during that time a track closer to the North Carolina coast will be more likely and if the shortwave is weaker and not as far south, the storm won’t be pulled westward near the NC Coast but would rather be pushed away from the coast and out to sea.
I will update in the morning with more details.