Major Hurricane Irma Continues Westward
Hurricane Irma
5:00 PM EDT on September 03, 2017
Location 17.6 N -49.8 W
Winds: 115 mph Gust: 140 mph
Pressure: 969 mb
Category: 3
Moving: W at 13 mph
Hurricane Irma’s core has become somewhat ragged as oppose to its appears two days ago. Based on recon data this afternoon, it appears that the center is tilted as a result of northerly shear explaining its appearance. This disruption of the core is preventing the hurricane from intensifying from its current category 3 status and could signal some slight weakening during this state. Environment conditions become very favorable for intensification around the time Irma passes dangerously close to the Leeward Islands. These islands could expect hurricane conditions by early Wednesday on its current track.
The hurricane will have made a turn to the west-northwest and is forecast to continue on this track through the end of the week. Beyond that time frame things become very complicated. The future track of the storm will come down to three different features that will interact later this week.
Over the past several runs, the ridge has pushed further south resulting in Irma’s forecast track being shifted further and further south. Once Irma reaches the southwestern portion of the ridge it will begin a turn to the west-northwest. During that time a trough will be situated over the eastern half of the country. Previous forecast have had difficulty handling this scenario which is why there is some much uncertainty with the eventual track of Irma.
The 18Z ensemble models are showing a weaker trough by late weekend that is pushing off the northeast coast while previous runs had the trough further west. This pattern could lead to a track very close to the east coast and potentially making landfall there. This is the first run showing this trough location further east so I will be looking to see if this is a trend with the 00Z runs later tonight.
Since the probabilities of possible landfall on the east coast is increasing, residents in these areas need to take action this week; the earlier the better. Do not take this storm lightly.
I will keep monitoring the situation and post updates daily as we go through the next week.