Invest 91L Will Move into Gulf of Mexico This Week

Written by on June 14, 2015 in Tropics

Updated at 6:45 PM 6/14/15 to update forecast.

Invest 91L currently sits over the Yucatan Peninsula bring heavy rain and thunderstorms to the area.

91l-vis

Visible satellite image of 91L at 11:30 AM Sunday June 14, 2015.

The general track has been to the NNW up to this point and is expected to continue this track for the next day. High pressure builds over the eastern CONUS which will turn 91L slightly northwesterly through Tuesday. The extent of this northwestward turn will determine the impacts along the Texas/Louisiana coast.

Forecast models for Invest 91L as of Sunday morning.

Forecast models for Invest 91L as of Sunday morning.

91L is expected to move over the very warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days and wind shear appears to be lessening to a point that would be favorable for tropical depression formation. We still need convection developing over a center of circulation for any chance of this becoming a tropical cyclone. The National Hurricane Center has given 91L a 70% chance of formation during the next 2 days. This would make it the second tropical depression of the season if it does form.

Water temperatures over Gulf of Mexico.

Water temperatures over Gulf of Mexico.

Streamlines of steering winds over the tropics.

Streamlines of steering winds over the tropics. The clockwise streamlines over Georgia and Florida represent the high pressure and its impact over the track ahead of 91L.

Wind shear will begin to lessen and become a little more favorable for development.

Wind shear will begin to lessen and become a little more favorable for development.

Forecast models show a borderline tropical depression with a few outliers at higher classification. Don't believe this will become a tropical storm but a tropical depression is possible.

Forecast models show a borderline tropical depression with a few outliers at higher classification. Don’t believe this will become a tropical storm but a tropical depression is possible.

The biggest impact from this system will be the heavy rain that will accompany its landfall. The general consensus is a track bringing it between Corpus Christi and Houston.

Rainfall total forecast through Tuesday.

Rainfall total forecast through Tuesday.

The heavy rain will spread inland over eastern Texas which does not need extra rain.

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