Winter Weather Returns This Weekend
There is growing interest around this weekend’s forecast here in ENC so as of Wednesday night where do we stand?
Temperatures Thursday and Friday will reach the low 70s across the area. A cold front will push through the area Friday afternoon and temperatures will begin to plummet. We will see lows reach the low to mid 30s on Saturday and even lower on Sunday.
On Saturday, mid-level energy will travel from the Pacific Northwest southeastward across the central US.
As it reaches the Southeastern US, it will begin to interact with return flow/shortwave energy out of Mexico. Surface low pressure is forecast to develop over the Gulf Coast States and push off the east coast Sunday as moisture filters into the area as the low gets close. Models are showing enough cold air will be present for precipitation to fall as snow over the northern half of ENC beginning early Sunday morning and lasting for a couple of hours. Precipitation could end in mixed precipitation Sunday afternoon for some in central ENC.
The 12Z GFS, NAM, and Euro are similar in forecast evolution leading to a somewhat better confidence in this forecast. The 12Z CMC, on the otherhand, shows a stronger shortwave leading to a slower evolution/forward speed and is being considered as an outlier at this point.
Forecasting potential snowfall amounts early on in a situation such as this is always risky since there are several variables at play. First, like I mentioned earlier temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s a mere 48-72 hours in advance of the onset of precipitation. Ground temperatures will still be relatively warm by this time so accumulation will be hindered at first and how long it takes to cool down sufficiently to support accumulating snow. Second, surface low track is also important as a compact system such as this could mean the difference of rain, snow, or none. Finally, in a previous post from the last winter storm we had I pointed out that some forecast models had difficulty determining precipitation totals when sleet/ice was forecast to occur (GFS/Euro hint at this possible scenario). This lead to highly exaggerated forecast amounts that showed more than a foot of snow when only an inch of snow accumulated.
I will watch it for another day or two and will issue a forecast total map during this time.
Bottom line, there is an increasing chance that areas across the east could potentially see snow this weekend.
I will keep an eye on this developing situation and will brief daily through Sunday.