Uncertainty Remains With Weekend Snow
After reviewing today’s model data this weekend’s forecast is much less uncertain than this time yesterday. There are multiple variables up in the air that will have a dramatic influence on what we can expect going into Sunday and beyond. I won’t layout each independent model’s solution since it would take several paragraphs to explain the differences and the impacts. I will give a basic overview of what to watch for over the next two days.
So what do we know from the consensus model runs at least for the short term? On Friday, a cold front will pass through the area bringing much colder temperatures and a chance for scattered showers over the area. The cold air behind the front will remain over the area through the weekend as it is re-enforced by northerly flow over the east coast.
On Saturday, mid-level energy will dive southeastward over the central US. As it nears the Gulf Coast States it will begin to interact/phase with the southern stream energy emerging from the Gulf Coast. This is where the models begin to spread out somewhat significantly due to differences of strength of the shortwave energy crossing the central US, strength of the southern stream energy, and timing in which case leads us to a murkier image of this weekend’s forecast (and into early next week). Over the next day or two, we should get some upper-air data that hopefully will shed a little light on the forecast evolution of this system.
At this time, it appears that portions ENC could potentially see wintry precipitation on Saturday though this will depend on eventual forecast track of the system in question. Accumulation amounts, if any, will be very light.
There is very little certainty regarding this system and the risk of the forecast busting is high.
I will be back on tomorrow with another update regarding this system.