Some Snow Still Possible Sunday
Update: As of Saturday night, forecast below still current thinking of Sunday’s event.
Forecast models today have been trending with a little weaker system to impact ENC on Sunday. There is still some disagreement among some of the models leading to low confidence with the forecast of this system.
Like yesterday, we have a northern stream shortwave over the northwest which will dive southeastward towards the Gulf Coast States. There is also an elongated area of mid level troughing over northern Mexico where a portion of this energy will eject east across the Gulf Coast in conjunction with the northern stream shortwave allowing low pressure to develop over the Gulf of Mexico. Forecast soundings show enough moisture over the region to support precipitation between around sunrise and early afternoon. Temperature profile supports precipitation type as snow during this time frame though could end as a mix with low level temperatures rising above freezing.
Expect to see little to no snow accumulations across the east. Parts of central and western North Carolina could see inch or two from this system on Sunday.
Low pressure off the southeast coast will begin to deepen and lift northward late Monday into early Tuesday bring a round of heavy rain across ENC (no precipitation type issues here as temperatures remain several degrees above freezing in the lower 8,000 feet).
I will continue to monitor the forecast but I don’t expect any major changes at this time.