Quick Morning Update
Not much has changed from my previous post from last night. The GFS is trending a little warmer than yesterday which would move the rain/snow line slightly north but the model also shows drier air in the dendritic growth zone. If this verifies, even if the vertical profile were to be supportive of snow, the dry air could prevent the formation of snow. But if the vertical profile does support frozen precipitation then we could see areas further north potentially seeing sleet before warm air beings to nose in aloft as demonstrated in the forecast crossection from the GFS model.
Vertical cross section from the GFS model as of Thursday morning.Areas right now that have the best chance at seeing frozen precipitation are north of highway 64. Even then there will only be a short window in those areas to see frozen precipitation. All areas can expect to see a much longer period of rain.
I will keep an eye on this system but as it stands right now, I don’t see this really being a threat to the area.
Update: Based on recent model runs, it appears rain will be the dominate precipitation type over most of ENC. There is still a chance that the far northern sections could see some snow but given the conditions mentioned above it is beginning to seem less likely.
As of Friday night, my forecast has not changed. Warm air advection aloft decrease chances of snow across most of ENC. There still remains some uncertainty that the dendritic growth zone will be fully saturated enough to support snow formation.
Given the information so far, this appears to be a mostly rain event for much of ENC (far northern sections could see a brief period of snow before changing to rain). Rain could be heavy at times with some areas seeing up to 0.75″ before ending Sunday.