Sunday Night Severe Weather

This is an update from yesterday’s forecast. Some minor changes were made to the forecast which are described below.

We will be tracking severe weather today as a strong cold front moves its way eastward over ENC. The SPC has put ENC in the Slight Risk category today for severe thunderstorms. To our west, the SPC has placed central and western portions of the state into the Enhanced Risk category.

Forecast reflectivity.

The cold front in question will pass through our area late tonight. Prior to the front’s passage, high res models are indicating the possibility of discrete supercell development well ahead of the front. Given the upper wind profile on today’s forecast soundings, these cells could become tornadic. Hail is also a risk within these cells.

Forecast sounding.

During the afternoon, the atmosphere will destabilize across ENC despite early cloud cover and showers as a warm, moist atmosphere will be in place due to a strong southerly flow. Dewpoints this afternoon are expected to reach into the upper 60s prior to frontal passage. With PWAT values of 1.50″ or greater in place, heavy rainfall from these storms will be likely.

Forecast dew points.

Forecast CAPE values.

The cold front is expected to reach the area around 8:00PM and push offshore during the early morning hours. There will be a line of strong to severe storms along the cold front as it pushes eastward. The main treats with this storm will be the heavy rain and strong damaging winds. Strong 850mb winds do increase the risk of strong wind gusts that will mix to the surface in some of the stronger convection.

Forecast 850mb winds.