Severe Weather Sunday Night
As of Saturday morning, we are watching the potential for severe weather Sunday night and into early Monday morning. A strong cold front will approach the region from the west Sunday evening. The SPC has placed central and eastern NC under the Slight Risk category for severe storms. This was expanded from just central NC this morning to both central and eastern this afternoon.
The storm system that will impact our area is currently bringing severe weather to the Gulf Coast States and extends northward to the Great Lakes. This system has a history of producing tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds.
The upper trough is expected to become negatively tilted as it moves eastward on Sunday.
Forecast soundings do indicate favorable conditions for severe storms across the area.
GFS forecast sounding.Below is the NAM forecast for CAPE values across the area which are conducive for deep convection.
NAM forecast model for CAPE at midnight.
Prior to the frontal approach, southerly winds will usher in a very moist atmosphere with dewpoints forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s across the area which is unusually high for this time of year.
Winds aloft will be extremely high which could be translated to the surface in some of the stronger storms. This also highlights the high shear values ahead of the front.
Models also indicate strong lift just ahead of the cold front where most of the strongest storms will be located.
Cross section from west to east across the area also a large area of lift (purple colors) just ahead of the front. This is where we expect the strongest to severe storms to be located. At the surface, you can visualize the leading edge of the front by the steep theta-e values midway through the cross section.
As for the timing of the frontal passage, we can expect the front to start moving through central North Carolina late Sunday evening and approaching ENC around 11:00 to midnight. It will then push offshore around 5:00-6:00 am on Monday morning.
Bottom line: Most of ENC will see strong to severe storms late Sunday night with the primary threat being strong, damaging winds with an isolated tornado possible. It is advised to be aware for any warnings issued at your location by having your NOAA weather radio with you at all times. Be prepared to take action should severe weather were to threaten your area.
